SPX Morning Note
The levels the desk trades, one trading day later.
Premarket read, gamma flip, call and put walls, the working range and the plan — every trading day, in full, the next trading day after members get it.
Most recent note · Thursday, September 10, 2026 · posted Sep 11, 2026
A Hike Is Now The Base Case
A September hike is now the base case. Fed funds futures put it near 60%, up from a little over 40% in late August, and crude is doing that repricing, not any inflation print. Brent went through $101 this morning, its highest in over three months and up about 15% since the month began. Ten-year 4.85%, two-year 4.43%. SPX closed 7,636.36 yesterday, down 0.48%, the Dow off 405 points to 52,380.66. Premarket 7,637, flat.
Treasury buys back up to $6 billion of long-dated debt today, three times the usual operation. The August 19 announcement merely doubled it off $2 billion, and that bought exactly one session of lower yields before they went straight back up. This one lands on a ten-year already at its highest since late 2023, and the yield rose anyway. A buyback is the bid of last resort for the long end. When the long end will not take it at triple size, what is being priced is not a shortage of buyers.
- 7,637
- Premarket
- 7,680
- Call wall
- 7,640
- Gamma flip
- 7,600
- Put wall
- 7,600–7,680
- Range
Every trading morning the desk publishes one note before the bell: what happened overnight, the tension the wires miss, where dealer gamma sits, and a stated lean with a level on it. Members get it at 8:30 AM ET. It is posted here the next trading day, in full.
How to read it
The narrative comes first: the event that defines the morning, the numbers behind it, then where SPX closed and where it is premarket. The second paragraph is the tension — two facts that do not fit together. The third is the structure. The fourth is the lean, with the level that would prove it wrong.
The levels follow. Big Picture is the handful of numbers that matter beyond today. Today's Trading is the working range with every level inside it and its reason — prior demand, a moving average, a gamma node. The GEX Profile is three numbers: the call wall (the largest positive gamma node, a magnet and a cap), the gamma flip (below it dealers amplify moves instead of damping them), and the put wall (the largest negative node, and the floor that matters). The GEX guide explains why those three run the session. Where a note quotes gamma sums, the units are the desk's own aggregate exposure figures; the ratio between two nodes is what matters, not the absolute number.
Execution Levels are the plan: long entries from a shallow dip to a continuation through resistance, short entries from a fade to a breakdown, each with targets that are real levels rather than round numbers. The method behind the tiers is in the SPX 0DTE strategy guide. The VIX Levels ladder closes the note.
Archive
Every note the desk has published since May 2026, newest first. Earlier notes ran under the name SPX Trade Plan and are listed at the end.
September 2026
- Sep 10, 2026A Hike Is Now The Base CaseFlip 7,640 · range 7,600–7,680
- Sep 9, 2026Ten Tankers In Seven DaysFlip 7,695 · range 7,616–7,730
- Sep 8, 2026Reopening Is Not De-escalationFlip 7,705 · range 7,650–7,750
- Sep 4, 2026The Wrong Number to Settle ItFlip 7,720 · range 7,700–7,800
- Sep 3, 2026Sold On a Rounding ErrorFlip 7,665 · range 7,616–7,700
- Sep 2, 2026The Round Trip Is CompleteFlip 7,630 · range 7,580–7,675
- Sep 1, 2026The Rout Went GlobalFlip 7,695 · range 7,610–7,705
August 2026
- Aug 31, 2026Struck In The StraitFlip 7,705 · range 7,650–7,750
- Aug 28, 2026Warsh Speaks At TenFlip 7,720 · range 7,700–7,770
- Aug 27, 2026Nvidia Broke The PatternFlip 7,675 · range 7,675–7,745
- Aug 26, 2026Iran And Oman Open A Route Through HormuzFlip 7,665 · range 7,655–7,715
- Aug 25, 2026The Biggest Iran Move Yet, And Crude FellFlip 7,660 · range 7,650–7,725
- Aug 24, 2026Fifty Percent On Canada, And Yields FellFlip 7,670 · range 7,630–7,710
- Aug 21, 2026Everything Beats, Nothing LiftsFlip 7,685 · range 7,640–7,700
- Aug 20, 2026The Refund Cuts Both WaysFlip 7,720 · range 7,620–7,720
- Aug 19, 2026Twenty-Nine Billion, Handed BackFlip 7,705 · range 7,650–7,763
- Aug 18, 2026The Long End Isn't Arguing About SeptemberFlip 7,760 · range 7,650–7,760
- Aug 17, 2026The Gamma Is Above Us, Not Under UsFlip 7,775 · range 7,755–7,825
- Aug 14, 2026Above 7,800, Retail Sales at 8:30Flip 7,775 · range 7,760–7,830
- Aug 13, 2026Thick Above, Thin Below, PPI at 8:30Flip 7,745 · range 7,745–7,800
- Aug 12, 2026Pinned Until 8:30Flip 7,730 · range 7,700–7,800
- Aug 11, 2026Oil Undid the Jobs Relief, CPI TomorrowFlip 7,745
- Aug 10, 2026Flat at the Highs
- Aug 7, 2026Friday, Jobs, 7740
- Aug 6, 2026New Highs, Soft Jobs
- Aug 5, 2026Record Close, Record Gap
- Aug 4, 2026Gap Up Into New Highs
- Aug 3, 2026Gap Over the Call Wall
July 2026
- Jul 31, 2026Friday at the Flip
- Jul 30, 2026Gap Up Into the Data
- Jul 29, 2026FOMC Holds, Iran Burns
- Jul 28, 2026FOMC Starts, Semis Crack
- Jul 27, 2026Gap Up Into the Call Wall
- Jul 24, 2026Friday, Negative Gamma, 7,400 Close
- Jul 23, 2026Alphabet Beats, Tesla Breaks, Gap Down
- Jul 22, 2026Gapped Below the Flip
- Jul 21, 2026Gap Up Into the 50-Day
- Jul 20, 2026Gap Up Into Negative Gamma
- Jul 17, 2026Friday Gap Into Negative Gamma
- Jul 16, 2026Morning Update
- Jul 15, 2026Gap Up Into the Flip
- Jul 10, 2026Friday, 325 Above the 21-Week
- Jul 9, 2026Airstrikes, Gap Up, Negative Gamma
- Jul 8, 2026Iran Escalation, FOMC Minutes at 2
- Jul 7, 2026Samsung Drag, 7,550 Overhead
- Jul 6, 2026Gap Up Into the Holiday
- Jul 1, 2026Warsh at Sintra, 7,500 Overhead
June 2026
- Jun 30, 2026Pinned at the Call Wall
- Jun 16, 2026Warsh's First FOMC
- Jun 8, 2026Gap Up Into Friday's Wreckage
- Jun 1, 2026Right at the Flip
May 2026
- May 29, 2026Friday at the Highs
- May 28, 2026Record Close, Iran Rips It Back
- May 27, 2026New Highs, Oil Craters
- May 18, 2026Warsh Takes the Chair
- May 15, 2026Summit Fades, 7,500 Holds
SPX Trade Plan, November 2025 – January 2026
The earlier format: commentary and the gamma flip. The full plan for those sessions lives on Substack.
- Jan 30, 2026The “Gap & Go” vs. The Morning After
- Jan 29, 2026The market continues to show the strength we have
- Jan 28, 2026very simple note today
- Jan 27, 2026The Technicals are healing, but not fully recovered
- Jan 26, 2026We have arrived at what might be the most critical week
- Jan 23, 2026We have been building this thesis step-by-step all week
- Jan 22, 2026Yesterday was a wild one
- Jan 21, 2026Since December, I have maintained a staunchly bullish
- Jan 20, 2026If you’ve been following the Alpha Pod alerts, you know
- Jan 16, 2026Today is monthly OPEX (Options Expiration)
- Jan 15, 2026The market continues to show a lot of strength despite
- Jan 14, 2026Yesterday’s closing print might have looked sluggish
- Jan 13, 2026The main event of the week is behind us
- Jan 12, 2026The markets are off to a great start this year
- Jan 9, 2026All week I have been talking about how we’re likely in
- Jan 8, 2026Yesterday the markets showed they can’t just always go
- Jan 7, 2026The insatiable bid in high-beta stocks persists, with
- Jan 6, 2026The first three trading days of the year have been
- Jan 5, 2026A few notes before we get into today’s trading plan:
- Jan 2, 2026Welcome to the first trading day of 2026
- Dec 26, 2025Shorter note again given the holiday, however there's a
- Dec 24, 2025Today is a half day and we have a potential range set
- Dec 23, 2025It’s two days before Christmas and we’re wondering if
- Dec 22, 2025Last week we survived the gauntlet
- Dec 19, 2025We did it
- Dec 18, 2025Light at the End of the Tunnel
- Dec 17, 2025Yesterday paid
- Dec 16, 2025As noted yesterday, this week is a big one full of data
- Dec 15, 2025Since December 3rd, we have anticipated consolidation
- Dec 12, 2025Out with the Mag 7, in with the Russell 2000
- Dec 11, 2025Since last Wednesday, we anticipated chop and digestion
- Dec 10, 2025Today is FOMC day
- Dec 9, 2025SPX continues to consolidate as all eyes turn to
- Dec 8, 2025Calm Before the Storm
- Dec 7, 2025Calm Before the Storm
- Dec 5, 2025This past week the SPX has chopped within a range while
- Dec 4, 2025Calm Before the Storm
- Dec 3, 2025After a strong move, SPX is doing what it
- Dec 2, 2025Today’s note is shortened due to travel issues
- Dec 1, 2025New month, new candle — and November closed with what
- Nov 30, 2025New month, new candle — and November closed with what
Questions
Is the Morning Note free?
This archive is. Every note is posted here in full one trading day after members receive it. To get it the morning it's written, subscribe on Substack (paid) or join Alpha Pod, where it arrives at 8:30 AM ET with the live alerts and the room.
Why one trading day late?
The levels are built for one session and expire at the close. Publishing them the next trading day keeps the archive honest and complete without giving away the live edge members pay for.
What are the call wall, gamma flip and put wall?
Three levels from the day's option positioning. The call wall is the largest positive gamma strike and tends to cap rallies. The gamma flip is where dealer hedging switches from damping moves to amplifying them. The put wall is the largest negative strike and is the floor that matters on the downside.
Who writes it?
The Alpha Pod desk, led by a former BlackRock analyst. The note is written fresh each morning from verified premarket, gamma and level data, then checked mechanically before it goes out.