Nvidia Broke The Pattern

Nvidia broke the pattern. Nasdaq futures are up about 1% after a print that beat on every line: $96.2 billion in revenue against roughly $92 billion expected, more than double a year ago, with data center revenue up 117% to $89.0 billion. Colette Kress then guided fiscal 2028 revenue growth of 70%, the first year-ahead forecast the company has ever given, and the stock is up about 4%. It had fallen in response to its own earnings in six of the last eight quarters, including the last four. SPX closed 7,676, unchanged on the day. Premarket 7,703, up 28.

The margin line is where it gets interesting. Kress guided gross margin down to 74% this quarter and 71 to 72% by the fourth, and said supply and capacity commitments have gone from $119 billion to $279 billion, because memory pricing is running beyond anything the company had modelled. The explanation is the part worth sitting with. Memory scarcity, she said, is driven in large part by the AI buildout itself. For five weeks this tape has punished companies for what the build costs — Alphabet, Meta, AMD, all beat and all sold — and the cost has now turned up inside the accounts of the one company the build pays.

Premarket sits 28 over the flip at 7,675, against eight points of cushion on Wednesday, and the shelf underneath is the densest in weeks: the flip, yesterday's close at 7,675.70 and prior resistance at 7,676.90 on one number, then the 13 EMA, 8 EMA and 20 SMA inside a seven-point band from 7,680 to 7,687. Overhead the call wall is 7,740, and the strikes above it come to roughly 5,970 against the wall's 3,420, so clearing it pulls rather than caps. The odd feature is 7,715. The largest negative on the profile sits twelve points above price, but it is a lone negative strike inside a positive shelf running 7,720 through 7,740, and the field below price stays positive all the way to the flip. That is a pocket to punch through, not the overhead put wall of last week, which had an even field underneath it and no support until a gamma cluster met a moving average.

The lean is long while 7,675 holds, and 7,698 is the better entry than paying up into 7,715. Clear that pocket and hold it and there is very little between there and the wall. The caution is that vol has already paid out, VIX 15.01 with both events behind the tape and Warsh at Jackson Hole tomorrow. Losing 7,675 is the whole case for the other side, and the negatives beneath are thin enough that a break travels before anything catches it.