Options flow intelligence

Signal Performance & Analysis

Independent detection modules scanning the full OPRA options tape. Isolating true directional flow from institutional noise.

Every signal, scored — losers included. Figures reflect tracked contract price movement, not member account returns.

01 · The record

Every flagged contract, tracked for twenty days.

Snapshot · data through 2026-08-13 · aggregates lagged 5 trading days · n = 6,904 contracts

Not every options print is a signal. Most are not. Alpha Pod runs 13 independent detection modules against the full OPRA options tape. Spread detection, tiered scoring, multi-signal context scoring and round-trip suppression filter institutional hedges and noise before anything reaches the feed.

PipelineFlow scanner → Tiered scoring → Spread detection → IV context → EOD netting → OI positioning → 20-day tracking

6,904Contracts tracked
929Tickers
142Trading days
13Detection modules

02 · The verdict

What a disciplined exit would have kept.

One number, with the rule that produced it and the sample behind it.

62%

of flagged contracts reached +30% before −50% — the disciplined-exit win rate. n = 6,904 contracts across 929 tickers.

+92%Typical peak (median)
+131%Average peak — the home runs
24%Peaked +100% at some point
78%Reached +30% at any point

Average +131% vs typical +92% — the gap is the home runs. 24% of flagged contracts reached +100% or more at some point. Peak is the best case (maximum favorable excursion), not a return anyone captured. Past performance ≠ future results.

Win rate by confidence tier

03 · Rule by rule

Which detection rules carry the edge.

Ranked by win rate. The bar is the share of a rule’s flagged contracts that hit the target before the stop; open a row for the move it left on the table.

76%Hit +30% before −50%
+135%Median peak available
82%Reached +30% at any point
76%Reached +50% at any point
58%Doubled at peak
27%Above entry at the end of tracking
69%Hit +30% before −50%
+83%Median peak available
75%Reached +30% at any point
75%Reached +50% at any point
13%Doubled at peak
63%Above entry at the end of tracking
67%Hit +30% before −50%
+99%Median peak available
79%Reached +30% at any point
71%Reached +50% at any point
39%Doubled at peak
33%Above entry at the end of tracking
65%Hit +30% before −50%
+93%Median peak available
82%Reached +30% at any point
74%Reached +50% at any point
15%Doubled at peak
54%Above entry at the end of tracking
63%Hit +30% before −50%
+92%Median peak available
77%Reached +30% at any point
67%Reached +50% at any point
27%Doubled at peak
45%Above entry at the end of tracking
61%Hit +30% before −50%
+90%Median peak available
78%Reached +30% at any point
69%Reached +50% at any point
20%Doubled at peak
50%Above entry at the end of tracking
61%Hit +30% before −50%
+93%Median peak available
72%Reached +30% at any point
63%Reached +50% at any point
49%Doubled at peak
30%Above entry at the end of tracking
61%Hit +30% before −50%
+107%Median peak available
74%Reached +30% at any point
65%Reached +50% at any point
51%Doubled at peak
32%Above entry at the end of tracking
60%Hit +30% before −50%
+97%Median peak available
83%Reached +30% at any point
81%Reached +50% at any point
21%Doubled at peak
49%Above entry at the end of tracking
58%Hit +30% before −50%
+89%Median peak available
80%Reached +30% at any point
69%Reached +50% at any point
11%Doubled at peak
57%Above entry at the end of tracking
46%Hit +30% before −50%
+58%Median peak available
59%Reached +30% at any point
55%Reached +50% at any point
27%Doubled at peak
47%Above entry at the end of tracking
—Hit +30% before −50%
—Median peak available
—Reached +30% at any point
—Reached +50% at any point
—Doubled at peak
—Above entry at the end of tracking
—Hit +30% before −50%
—Median peak available
—Reached +30% at any point
—Reached +50% at any point
—Doubled at peak
—Above entry at the end of tracking

Win rate = the share of a rule’s flagged contracts that reached +30% before −50%, measured from the alerted fill on the real intraday price path. Average peak is the best the contract reached at any point — the opportunity at its peak, not a return anyone captured. Sample size shown per rule; under 10 greyed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

04 · Capturing the move

Momentum signals: the peak keeps climbing, the held position gives it back.

The best price available keeps rising the longer a contract lives. The average open position, held without an exit, drifts negative. The edge is taking profits into strength.

Peak available (hindsight)Average open position, held
-50050100150%1d6d11d15d20d+82%−6%-50050100150%1d11d20d+82%−6%

Sample shrinks as contracts expire or close: n = 4,139 on day 1, 1,427 on day 20. Peak is hindsight, not a return.

Table view
DayPeak availableAvg held positionn
1d+11%0%4,139
2d+29%+2%4,126
3d+41%+1%4,102
4d+49%+1%4,061
5d+56%−1%4,015
6d+63%0%3,923
7d+65%0%3,612
8d+68%0%3,349
9d+69%−1%3,146
10d+71%0%2,920
11d+71%0%2,702
12d+72%−1%2,527
13d+75%−2%2,350
14d+76%−3%2,180
15d+76%−4%2,022
16d+78%−3%1,884
17d+80%−4%1,748
18d+80%−6%1,625
19d+81%−6%1,537
20d+82%−6%1,427

05 · Strategy simulator

One fixed rule, every signal, in sequence.

A fixed +30% target / −50% stop applied to every tracked signal, in sequence. Backtested and illustrative of the method — not a traded account.

Target+30%
Stop−50%
Break-even+10%
Allocation$500/trade
$-40000$-20000$0$20K$40K$60K11714342751416854$28.5K$-40000$-20000$0$20K$40K$60K134276854$28.5K
+185%Backtested return
$28,511from $10,000
−274%Max drawdown
6853Signals in sequence

Backtested on the tracked signals with the rule above. Fills, slippage and position limits are not modelled; the path shows what the exit discipline does to a book, not what a member earned. Past performance ≠ future results.

06 · Deeper look

How the edge splits by threshold, hour, expiry and size.

Each chart carries a table view for the exact figures.

How far contracts run

Share reaching each threshold, call buys vs put buys
Call buysPut buys
020406080100120%+10%+20%+30%+50%+100%+200%020406080100120%+10%+20%+30%+50%+100%+200%
Table view
ThresholdCall buysPut buys
+10%86%92%
+20%78%88%
+30%72%84%
+50%62%76%
+100%45%4%
+200%27%2%

Contract gain distribution

Contracts by size of move, all tracked contracts
Peak availableDisciplined exit
01,0002,0003,0004,000< 0% (Losers)0-10%10-25%25-50%50-100%100-200%200%+01,0002,0003,0004,000< 0% (Losers)0-10%10-25%25-50%50-100%100-200%200%+
Table view
BucketPeak availableDisciplined exit
< 0% (Losers)02,874
0-10%75277
10-25%55483
25-50%839146
50-100%3,1341,440
100-200%671575
200%+954377

Win rate by hour

Eastern time, at the moment of the alert
Call buysPut buys
020406080%9:0010:0011:0012:0013:0014:0015:00020406080%9:0010:0011:0012:0013:0014:0015:00
Table view
Hour (ET)Call buysPut buys
9:0059%64%
10:0067%63%
11:0050%59%
12:0053%66%
13:0064%67%
14:0058%59%
15:0047%67%

Win rate by days to expiry

DTE at the moment of the alert
Call buysPut buys
020406080%59%63%0-7d60%63%8-30d62%65%31-60d61%—60d+020406080%59%63%0-7d60%63%8-30d62%65%31-60d61%—60d+
Table view
DTECall buysPut buys
0-7d59%63%
8-30d60%63%
31-60d62%65%
60d+61%—

Win rate by volume over open interest

Does more unusual mean better
Call buysPut buys
020406080%61%64%1-3x60%62%3-10x60%65%10-50x65%62%50x+020406080%61%64%1-3x60%62%3-10x60%65%10-50x65%62%50x+
Table view
Vol/OICall buysPut buys
1-3x61%64%
3-10x60%62%
10-50x60%65%
50x+65%62%

Alert cluster size

Does repeated flow on one name mean better
Win rateAverage peak
050100150200%62%131%Single63%145%2-3 alerts65%91%4+ alerts050100150200%62%131%Single63%145%2-3 alerts65%91%4+ alerts
Table view
ClusterWin rateAverage peak
Single62%+131%
2-3 alerts63%+145%
4+ alerts65%+91%

Weekly consistency

Win rate by week against the lifetime average
Weekly win rateLifetime average
020406080100%2026-W042026-W112026-W182026-W262026-W33avg 62%76%020406080100%2026-W042026-W182026-W33avg 62%76%
Table view
WeekWin rate
2026-W0473%
2026-W0547%
2026-W0663%
2026-W0754%
2026-W0862%
2026-W0961%
2026-W1057%
2026-W1159%
2026-W1259%
2026-W1356%
2026-W1467%
2026-W1575%
2026-W1678%
2026-W1766%
2026-W1873%
2026-W1973%
2026-W2054%
2026-W2174%
2026-W2271%
2026-W2348%
2026-W2475%
2026-W2566%
2026-W2661%
2026-W2751%
2026-W2844%
2026-W2955%
2026-W3050%
2026-W3168%
2026-W3269%
2026-W3376%

07 · Standouts

The biggest moves the modules flagged first.

Peak move is the maximum favorable excursion from the alerted fill — the best the contract reached, not a return anyone captured. The scoreboard above carries the losers.

TickerRuleAlert dateDTEPeak move
GLDRepeated Hits2026-08-1310d+284%
SQQQRepeated Hits2026-08-1314d+141%
SNDKRepeated Hits (Descending)2026-08-1328d+126%
USORepeated Hits2026-08-1314d+146%
SNDKRepeated Hits2026-08-1236d+234%
DELLRepeated Hits2026-08-1236d+104%
LITERepeated Hits2026-08-1215d+120%
DRAMRepeated Hits (Ascending)2026-08-1215d+179%

Swipe for peak move

08 · Methodology

How a signal is scored.

Scoring rules

  • Win definition. Realizable win: the contract traded +30% above the alert's average fill before pulling back -50% from it, using intraday first-passage ordering (which level was touched first), tracked from the alert through expiry. Returns are oriented, so put-sells count wins when the contract decays. When target and stop are both touched on the same session and the intraday order can't be established, the signal is counted as a loss (conservative), never a win.
  • Entry basis. Entry is the average fill price at the moment of the alert (tape time). Not a backtested ideal.
  • Peak vs. realizable. Peak figures show the move available at a contract’s best — the opportunity, not a guaranteed return. Realizable figures (win rate, close return) reflect a disciplined exit.
  • Completeness. Every flagged contract with price tape is included, winners and losers. Modules under 10 samples are greyed.
  • Stamp. Data through 2026-08-13 · generated 2026-08-21 · aggregates lagged 5 trading days.

What the numbers are

Educational research, not financial advice. Options trading involves substantial risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Figures reflect tracked contract price movement from the alerted fill, not member account returns; nobody is credited with a peak.

The same scoring discipline — every signal, losers included, nothing deleted — runs the desk’s SPX trade log on the performance page.

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