US and Iran Talk at the UN, Diesel Hits a Record

The US and Iran spent Tuesday talking Hormuz at the UN. Trump called it a three-hour meeting, Witkoff said mediators shuttled between the two delegations all day, and nobody announced a deal. Iran's terms got harder. The IRGC now wants all $24 billion of frozen assets released up front and the Yemen blockade lifted as part of it. SPX closed flat at 7,764.64 while the Nasdaq made another record. Premarket 7,755.

Crude's been paying for this rally. Brent fell a fifth straight session to under $99, off nearly $110 last week. Diesel went the other way. AAA had it at a record $6.53 on Tuesday and Trump says he'd back a ban on exporting it. Russia's banned its own diesel exports since Ukraine started hitting its refineries, and the Gulf's refineries have taken hits too. So the barrel's getting cheaper while the fuel that moves trucks and tractors keeps setting records, and diesel is how energy gets into the price of nearly everything else. The hawks spent last week saying oil was never the whole problem. The ten-year's back at 4.99% this morning.

Premarket's sitting five under the flip at 7,760, right where the last two closes and prior demand at 7,763 are. It's negative gamma under there, but shallow. A thin band runs down to the put wall at 7,740 and the negatives die out almost completely by 7,675. Above the flip it's the opposite, positive from the very next strike all the way to 7,850, and the call wall at 7,790 has nearly twice its own gamma sitting in the strikes above it. There's almost three times as much positive gamma over the flip as negative under it, so a reclaim of 7,765 hands dealers the job of buying into the move.

The trade is a backtest of 7,746, prior demand just over the put wall, for 7,763 and the 7,790 wall. Chasing the open inside the flip's chop gets nothing a pullback doesn't pay better. Back over 7,765 and the plateau pulls through the wall toward the record high. A close under 7,735 gives up the put wall band, and the negative gamma under it runs to 7,682.