Iran Offers to Reopen Hormuz

Iran says it'll reopen Hormuz inside a week. That's Kyodo, citing one senior official, and the price is steep: the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports and announces a plan to stop military operations around the strait. Nobody else has confirmed it and crude fell anyway, Brent down 2% to about $98 after settling just over $100 Monday. SPX had already run 114 points to 7,764.70 yesterday, the best day since early August, with the Nasdaq at a record. Premarket 7,772.

Every big AI move since early August came off a number in an earnings deck or a capex plan. Monday's came off downloads. Meta's Muse agent went to number one on the App Store, the stock closed up 11%, and the money ran into the chips an agent actually runs on, Intel up more than 12% and Arm 17%, while Nvidia lagged the whole group. That's a new thing for this tape to pay for. It's doing it with the ten-year parked around 5% for a week now, and the index 0.4% off its record close.

Premarket's sitting 37 over the flip at 7,735, inside positive gamma that runs unbroken from 7,740 to 7,850. The call wall is 7,800, right on the record close, but it's barely bigger than 7,785 and 7,810 beside it, and the strikes from 7,805 to 7,850 carry four times its gamma between them. If 7,800 clears, dealers are buying into the move. What's thin is underneath. Positive gamma fades to almost nothing under 7,755, the flip and the put wall are the same strike with prior demand on it, and every negative below that adds up to a fifth of the positive gamma above it.

The lean is long, from a pullback to 7,763, Monday's close and prior demand, for 7,785 and the 7,800 wall. A clean break of 7,800 has the whole plateau behind it and runs to the 7,817 record high. Under 7,746 the cushion is gone, and a close below 7,735 takes the flip and the put wall together, next stop 7,713.