Morning Note · Tuesday, June 16, 2026
Warsh's First FOMC
Sent to members at 8:30 AM ET on Jun 16, 2026. Posted here the next trading day.
SPX closed 7,554 yesterday — up 1.65% on the Iran deal rally. Premarket is 7,548, essentially flat. The two-day FOMC meeting begins today.
This is Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair. No rate change expected — 99.6% probability of a hold at 3.50–3.75%. The real story is the vote split. April was 8-4, the widest dissent since 1992, with CPI still at 4.2%. Any shift in the dot plot or the statement language matters more than the decision itself. Elsewhere, China reported its first retail sales decline since Covid reopening at -0.6% YoY. BOJ is expected to hike to 1.0%, its highest since 1995. Crude continues to slide on the Strait of Hormuz reopening — Brent below $83.
Premarket is 123 points above the gamma flip at 7,425. Positive gamma. The call wall at 7,550 is 2 points above premarket — right on top of us. Put wall at 7,505 is 43 points below.
The FOMC decision and retail sales both drop tomorrow morning. Today is positioning into the event. The call wall at 7,550 is the ceiling until we get the statement. If 7,505 breaks before then, that changes the tone heading into Wednesday.
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Big Picture Levels
- 7,473
- 20 SMA (daily).
- 7,432
- 7,452 — 13 EMA (daily), 8 EMA (daily), 21 EMA (daily).
- 7,385
- 8-week EMA.
- 7,267
- 50-day SMA.
- 7,140
- 21-week EMA. Only Friday's close matters.
- 7,048
- 20-week SMA.
- 7,025
- 100-day SMA.
- 6,887
- 200-day SMA.
Today's Trading
- Primary range
- 7,506 – 7,550
- 7,550
- Call wall. Magnet. Ceiling.
- 7,513.95
- Multi-session support.
- 7,505
- Put wall.
- 7,499.47
- Multi-session support.
- 7,497.24
- Multi-session support.
- 7,494.06
- Multi-session support.
- 7,488.18
- Multi-session support.
- 7,481.01
- Multi-session support.
- 7,476.82
- 20 SMA (daily) area.
- 7,473.14
- 20 SMA (daily).
- 7,465.50
- Support.
- 7,457.31
- Multi-session support.
- 7,425
- Gamma flip. The regime line.
GEX Profile (June 16, 2026)
- Call Wall
- 7,550. 7,550 — 2 points above premarket. Sitting right on it.
- Gamma Flip
- ~7,425. 7,425 — 123 points below. Deep in positive gamma.
- Put Wall
- 7,505. 7,505 — 43 points below. First downside reference if we fade pre-FOMC.
Call wall, gamma flip, put wall — what they mean and why they run the session.
Execution Levels
Long Plan
| Entry | Why | Targets |
|---|---|---|
| Dip Buy: 7,514 | Support. Near the put wall. | 7,550 (call wall) |
| Second Bid: 7,506 | Near the put wall. | 7,550 (call wall) |
| Deep Bid: 7,505 | Put wall. Dense negative gamma. | 7,550 (call wall) |
| Extreme: 7,450 | 8 EMA (daily). First MA test. | 7,473 (20 SMA), 7,488, 7,497 |
| Reclaim: 7,550 | Through resistance. Extension toward the call wall. | not stated |
| Continuation: 7,580 | Extension. | 7,600, 7,610, 7,630 |
Short Plan
| Entry | Why | Targets |
|---|---|---|
| Fade pops to: 7,550 | Resistance. Call wall right above. | 7,514, 7,505 (put wall), 7,494 |
| Below 7,425 | Loss of the gamma flip. Regime shift to negative gamma. | 7,412, 7,400, 7,385 (8w EMA) |
| Below 7,505 | Loss of the put wall. Negative gamma accelerating. | 7,494, 7,473 (20 SMA), 7,452 (13 EMA) |
| Breakdown: 7,499 | Multi-session support. | 7,488, 7,473 (20 SMA), 7,452 (13 EMA) |
How the entry tiers and targets are built: the SPX 0DTE strategy guide.
VIX Levels
- 14.78 key
- 15.29
- 15.62
- 15.79
- 16.26
- 16.65
- 17.11 key
- 17.15
Educational research, not investment advice. Levels and the plan describe how the desk framed that session and are published after it closed.