Ten Tankers In Seven Days

CENTCOM destroyed five more Iranian oil tankers on Tuesday. That is ten in a week, called retaliation for an attempted strike on a US Navy warship that missed. Brent cleared $100 this morning for the first time since July 24, with WTI at $95.24. The ten-year topped 4.8% yesterday, its highest since October 2023, and Treasury sells another one at 1:00 PM. SPX closed 7,673.52, down 0.58%, while the Dow took the real damage at 52,786.07, off 1.18%. Premarket 7,649, down 25.

The supply shock has changed hands. For six months the risk to crude came from Iran, from mines in the water and a strait shut since March, and what the market priced was the threat that barrels would be lost. Ten destroyed by American ordnance in a week is not a threat. Brent was almost $86 on August 26, when the Oman framework read as war premium coming out of crude. It is $100 now. Friday's CPI covers a month in which none of this had happened, and the Fed meets five days after it.

The profile moved down with price overnight and got heavier doing it. The call wall fell from 7,750 to 7,730 and lost about half its size, while the put wall dropped to 7,630 and roughly doubled, which puts the acceleration under price and leaves what is above it thin. Premarket sits 46 below the flip at 7,695, inside a gap in prior demand that runs from 7,670 down to 7,631. The 8-week EMA at 7,651 is the only thing in there, and price is on it. Any reclaim also has to get through 7,675, the second heaviest negative strike of the day.

So the lean is short while price is under 7,677, where prior demand, the 21-day and the heaviest negative below the flip arrive on one number. Lose 7,651 and nothing bids until 7,631. That put wall is not a floor to lean on either, because it doubled overnight with heavy negatives beneath it, so a break of it travels rather than bounces. 7,631 is the first long worth taking, and nothing above it is worth buying until 7,696 is back.