FOMC Starts, Semis Crack — SPX Morning Note, Jul 28, 2026

Key numbers

7,421.51: Premarket

SPX closed 7,413 yesterday and is trading 7,422 premarket — essentially flat. The real story is happening underneath. The semiconductor space is getting hit hard after a WSJ report that Nvidia is in talks to provide a $250 billion financial backstop for OpenAI's data center buildout. Circular vendor financing. South Korea's Kospi dropped over 10%. SK Hynix down 14%. Samsung down 13%. Nikkei fell nearly 4%. Nvidia lost 5% on Monday. Nasdaq futures are down 0.8% this morning while the Dow is up 400 points on Coke and Sherwin-Williams earnings.

The FOMC two-day meeting starts today. Rates at 3.50–3.75%. FactSet consensus expects a hold. CME FedWatch has it at 65.7% unchanged, 28% chance of a 25 bps hike. That 28% is not nothing. The 10-year is at 4.64%. PMIs came in 53–54 — still expanding. Decision tomorrow afternoon.

We're in negative gamma. Premarket at 7,422 is 73 points below the flip at 7,495. The put wall at 7,400 is 22 points below. The 8 EMA at 7,454 and 50-day at 7,471 are both overhead. The 21-week at 7,271 is 150 points below — irrelevant until Friday.

7,400 is the floor that matters today. If it breaks in negative gamma, there's no dense support until much lower. If we hold and grind, the 8 EMA at 7,454 and the flip at 7,495 are the levels above.

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Big Picture Levels

7,493: 20 SMA (daily).
7,271: 21-week EMA. Only Friday's close matters.
7,233: 20-week SMA.
7,184: 100-day SMA.
7,009: 200-day SMA.

Today's Trading

Primary range: 7,377 – 7,467
7,550: Call wall. Magnet. Ceiling.
7,495: Gamma flip. The regime line.
7,481.01: Prior demand. Resistance.
7,476.82: Prior demand. Resistance.
7,470.36: 21 EMA (daily).
7,465.50: Ceiling. 13 EMA (daily) area.
7,457.31: 8 EMA (daily) area.
7,453.57: 8 EMA (daily).
7,451.25: 8 EMA (daily) area.
7,446.92: Resistance.
7,444.78: Prior demand. Resistance.
7,436.60: Prior demand. Resistance.
7,429.22: 8-week EMA area.
7,425.57: 8-week EMA area.
7,421.51: Premarket.
7,419.43: Near current price.
7,412.42: Multi-session support.
7,400: Put wall.
7,384.88: Multi-session support.
7,376.92: Floor.
7,368.57: Multi-session support.
7,359.93: Multi-session support.
7,355.15: Support.
7,351.68: Support.
7,347.15: Support.
7,341.79: Multi-session support.
7,336.91: Multi-session support.
7,332.50: Multi-session support.

GEX Profile (July 28, 2026)

Call Wall: 7,550. 7,550 — 128 points above premarket. Distant.
Gamma Flip: ~7,495. 7,495 — 73 points above. Negative gamma. The 50-day SMA at 7,471 sits just below it.
Put Wall: 7,400. 7,400 — 22 points below premarket. Closest anchor.

Call wall, gamma flip, put wall — what they mean and why they run the session.

Execution Levels

Long Plan

Entry	Why	Targets
Dip Buy: 7,419	Support. 2 points below premarket.	7,437, 7,445, 7,454 (8 EMA)
Second Bid: 7,412	Support.	7,429 (8w EMA), 7,445, 7,454 (8 EMA)
Deep Bid: 7,400	Put wall. Dense negative gamma.	7,429 (8w EMA), 7,445, 7,454 (8 EMA)
Extreme: 7,385	Support. Deep negative gamma.	7,400, 7,429 (8w EMA), 7,445
Reclaim: 7,467	Through resistance. Extension toward the call wall.	7,477, 7,493 (20 SMA), 7,506
Continuation: 7,506	Extension.	7,550 (call wall)

Short Plan

Entry	Why	Targets
Fade pops to: 7,457-7,466	Resistance zone.	7,447, 7,429 (8w EMA), 7,419
Below 7,400	Loss of the put wall. Negative gamma accelerating.	7,385, 7,369, 7,360
Breakdown: 7,385	Multi-session support.	7,369, 7,360, 7,352

How the entry tiers and targets are built: the SPX 0DTE strategy guide.

VIX Levels

18.01 key
18.40
18.48
19.27
19.35 key
19.53
19.68
19.86

Educational research, not investment advice. Levels and the plan describe how the desk framed that session and are published after it closed.