FOMC Holds, Iran Burns — SPX Morning Note, Jul 29, 2026

Key numbers

7,424.97: Premarket

SPX closed 7,429 yesterday and is flat premarket at 7,425. The gap is negligible. What isn't negligible: Iran launched surprise attacks against the U.S. overnight, crude is up 3% to $81.75, and the Fed announces at 2:00 PM.

Markets are pricing a hold at 3.50–3.75% but CME FedWatch has a 35.8% chance of a surprise hike. That number was under 10% two weeks ago. War-driven oil inflation and AI capex overheating are doing the work. Chairman Warsh speaks at 2:30. After the close, Microsoft and Meta report — options markets are projecting a $190 billion swing in MSFT alone. Alphabet's negative free cash flow print last week is still hanging over every AI capex story.

We're 35 points below the gamma flip at 7,460. Negative gamma. The put wall at 7,400 is 25 points below premarket. The call wall at 7,490 is 65 points above. The 8 EMA daily at 7,448 and 50-day at 7,470 are both overhead, clustered right around the flip.

Everything before 2:00 PM is noise. If 7,400 breaks after the decision, there's nothing dense below it until 7,370. If the flip at 7,460 reclaims, the call wall at 7,490 is next.

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Big Picture Levels

7,492: 20 SMA (daily).
7,273: 21-week EMA. Only Friday's close matters.
7,234: 20-week SMA.
7,190: 100-day SMA.
7,013: 200-day SMA.

Today's Trading

Primary range: 7,377 – 7,457
7,490: Call wall. Magnet. Ceiling.
7,476.82: Prior demand. Resistance.
7,469.94: 50-day SMA.
7,465.50: 13 EMA (daily) area.
7,460: Gamma flip. The regime line.
7,457.31: Ceiling. Gamma flip at 7460 converges. 13 EMA (daily) area.
7,451.25: 8 EMA (daily) area.
7,446.92: 8 EMA (daily) area.
7,444.78: 8 EMA (daily) area.
7,436.60: 8-week EMA area.
7,432.39: 8-week EMA.
7,429.22: 8-week EMA area.
7,424.97: Premarket.
7,419.43: Multi-session support.
7,412.42: Multi-session support.
7,400: Put wall.
7,384.88: Multi-session support.
7,376.92: Floor.
7,368.57: Multi-session support.
7,359.93: Multi-session support.
7,355.15: Support.
7,351.68: Support.
7,347.15: Support.
7,341.79: Multi-session support.
7,336.91: Multi-session support.
7,332.50: Multi-session support.

GEX Profile (July 29, 2026)

Call Wall: 7,490. 65 points above premarket. Resistance until the flip reclaims.
Gamma Flip: ~7,460. 35 points above. Negative gamma. The 8 EMA and 50-day SMA are clustered in the same zone — 7,448 to 7,470.
Put Wall: 7,400. 25 points below premarket at 7,400. First downside anchor if the Fed surprises.

Call wall, gamma flip, put wall — what they mean and why they run the session.

Execution Levels

Long Plan

Entry	Why	Targets
Dip Buy: 7,419	Support. 6 points below premarket.	7,432 (8w EMA), 7,448 (8 EMA), 7,460 (flip)
Second Bid: 7,412	Support.	7,432 (8w EMA), 7,448 (8 EMA), 7,460 (flip)
Deep Bid: 7,400	Put wall. Dense negative gamma.	7,432 (8w EMA), 7,448 (8 EMA), 7,460 (flip)
Extreme: 7,385	Support. Deep negative gamma.	7,400, 7,432 (8w EMA), 7,448 (8 EMA)
Reclaim: 7,457	Through resistance. Extension toward the call wall.	7,470 (50-day SMA), 7,481, 7,490 (call wall)
Continuation: 7,490	Through the call wall. New territory.	7,506, 7,514

Short Plan

Entry	Why	Targets
Fade pops to: 7,445-7,457	Resistance approaching the call wall.	7,432 (8w EMA), 7,419, 7,400 (put wall)
Below 7,400	Loss of the put wall. Negative gamma accelerating.	7,385, 7,369, 7,360
Breakdown: 7,385	Multi-session support.	7,369, 7,360, 7,352

How the entry tiers and targets are built: the SPX 0DTE strategy guide.

VIX Levels

18.01 key
18.40
18.48
19.27
19.35 key
19.53
19.68
19.86

Educational research, not investment advice. Levels and the plan describe how the desk framed that session and are published after it closed.