OpenAI's Revenue Report Hit Chips and SPX Opens 15 Under the 7,800 Call Wall

OpenAI's revenue run rate is about $50 billion, not $70 billion. The Financial Times had the investor documents Thursday and the chip complex took it hard, Broadcom down 4.3% and Micron 4.8%. Late in the day Trump posted that there'll be no attack on Iran before the Nov. 3 midterms, a day after the report that he'd asked for strike options. SPX closed down 0.5% at 7,765.36 with the Dow higher. Premarket 7,785, up 20.

It's the third AI story in three days and the first two were about debt, SpaceX looking for $40 billion to buy Nvidia chips and Broadcom arranging more than $50 billion of private credit for OpenAI's chip. This one is about the revenue underneath, and it puts the financing for one customer's chip at roughly that customer's whole run rate. Chips are getting a percent or two back premarket. Oil barely moved on Trump's post. WTI is near $91, still over $2 above Wednesday's close, since the post covers 25 days and doesn't reopen Hormuz. Bonds did better. The 30-year sale cleared at 5.62% and the 10-year closed at a two-week low. Michigan sentiment is at 10:00.

Premarket is 35 over the flip at 7,750 and 15 under the call wall at 7,800, and the profile has turned over. It was close to five to one negative Thursday and it's better than four to one positive now, positive at every strike from 7,770 up. The wall is the same 7,800 that was Thursday's flip, and the band from 7,805 to 7,830 holds three times its gamma, so I'd expect a break over it to grind with dealers selling into it. Under price the 7,770 node is the third largest on the profile, just over Thursday's close and prior demand at 7,763. Below that it's chop to the flip and the 8-day, then a small put wall at 7,730, Thursday's low.

The lean is long, bought on a pullback and not at the open 15 under the wall. The entry is 7,770, the largest node under price, for 7,790 and then the wall at 7,800, sold on the first test. A hold over 7,806 opens 7,817 and 7,830, slowly. There is no long case on a hold under 7,763, which gives up Thursday's close and leaves only chop to the flip at 7,750.