Morning Note · Monday, October 5, 2026
October Hike Odds Fell to One in Five and the 10-Year Rose Anyway
Sent to members at 8:30 AM ET on Oct 5, 2026. Posted here the next trading day.
Key numbers
- 7,718
- Premarket
- 7,730
- Call wall
- 7,715
- Gamma flip
- 7,665
- Put wall
- 7,681–7,755
- Range
October's hike is off the table after Friday's jobs miss. CME FedWatch had the odds near one in five after September's 29,000 payrolls, down from more than a third a week earlier, while December is still priced near two in three. Stocks bought it. SPX closed 7,722.72 Friday, up 0.7%, the Nasdaq touched a record and Nvidia made its first all-time high since May. Futures are flat this morning. Premarket 7,718.
Bonds didn't buy it. The 10-year closed Friday at 5.28%, up 4 basis points on the day the October hike went away, and the 30-year finished at 5.63%. That's the third soft Fed signal in four sessions the long end has sold into, after Williams said there was no rush on Tuesday and the 30-year rose, then core PCE came in soft Wednesday and the 10-year went to its highest since 2002. None of it is about the October meeting. The 10-year is back near 5.26% this morning, ISM services lands at 10:00 with prices paid the line to watch after manufacturing's 77.9, and Wednesday's minutes cover a meeting that never saw this jobs report.
Premarket sits 3 over the flip at 7,715, right on the seam, after Friday's positive profile turned back to roughly 1.7 to 1 negative overnight. Under the flip is the heaviest stretch of the day, negative at every strike from 7,705 down to the put wall at 7,665, so a loss of 7,713 has real fuel under it. Overhead the call wall at 7,730 is barely bigger than 7,750, and the gamma stays positive at every strike to 7,775. By the usual test that's a doorway. Friday's high still stopped at 7,755 on prior demand, in a profile that was positive all the way up.
The lean is short from the wall, not the open. Last week's five sessions lost a combined 107 points between the open and the close, and Friday's 56-point gain came entirely from the gap. Pops into 7,734, prior demand over the 7,730 wall, are for selling, for 7,719 and 7,698. A break of 7,713 puts price into the negative block and extends it toward 7,681. A hold over 7,746 ends it.
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Big Picture Levels
- 7,817
- Record high.
- 7,799
- Record close.
- 7,658
- 50-day.
- 7,578
- 20-week.
- 7,565
- 100-day.
- 7,527
- 21-week EMA, Friday close.
- 7,226
- 200-day.
Today's Trading — range 7,681–7,755
- 7,763
- Prior demand.
- 7,755
- Friday's high, prior demand, 7,750 node. Ceiling.
- 7,746
- Prior demand, 7,745 node.
- 7,734
- Prior demand, call wall 7,730.
- 7,725
- Prior demand, 7,725 node.
- 7,718
- Premarket, prior demand, 3 over the flip.
- 7,713
- Prior demand, gamma flip 7,715.
- 7,698
- Prior demand, Friday's low, 7,700 node.
- 7,689
- 8-day, 7,690 node.
- 7,685
- 13-day.
- 7,681
- Prior demand, 21-day and 8-week. Floor.
- 7,670
- Prior demand, 20-day.
- 7,665
- Put wall.
GEX Profile (Oct 5)
- Call Wall
- 7,730. 12 over price, barely bigger than 7,750, positive at every strike up to 7,775 before it thins.
- Gamma Flip
- 7,715. Price 3 over, 7,710 a residual blip, negative at every strike from 7,705 down.
- Put Wall
- 7,665. 53 under price, about 1.5x the next negative, the bottom of a dense block that runs up to 7,705. Thin below it.
Call wall, gamma flip, put wall — what they mean and why they run the session.
Execution Levels
Long Plan
| Entry | Why | Targets |
|---|---|---|
| Dip Buy: 7,698 | Prior demand, Friday's low, 7,700 node. | 7,713, 7,725, 7,734 |
| Deep Bid: 7,681 | Prior demand, 21-day and 8-week, 7,680 node. | 7,698, 7,713, 7,725 |
| Extreme: 7,665 | Put wall, 20-day and prior demand at 7,670. | 7,681, 7,698, 7,713 |
| Reclaim: 7,755 | Friday's high and prior demand cleared. | 7,765, 7,775, 7,799 |
| Continuation: 7,800 | Record close cleared, 7,800 node. | 7,817, 7,835, 7,850 |
Short Plan
| Entry | Why | Targets |
|---|---|---|
| Fade pops to: 7,734 | Prior demand, call wall 7,730. | 7,719, 7,698, 7,681 |
| Breakdown: 7,698 | Friday's low lost, inside the negative block. | 7,681, 7,665, 7,658 |
| Below 7,665 | put wall lost. | 7,631, 7,617, 7,598 |
How the entry tiers and targets are built: the SPX 0DTE strategy guide.
VIX Levels
- 14.78 key
- 15.29
- 15.62
- 15.79
- 16.26
- 16.65
- 17.11 key
- 18.01 key
Educational research, not investment advice. Levels and the plan describe how the desk framed that session and are published after it closed.