Super Micro Lifts the Chips Before Meta Reports, and SPX Opens 10 Over the Flip

Super Micro guided above estimates, and chips are bid again. The server maker's forecast topped the Street and it's up about 12% premarket, pulling Nvidia, AMD, Micron and Nasdaq futures higher, while SpaceX is up about 8% on its first profit as a public company. Dell and HPE are up too. Netflix is the miss, down about 6% on a weak fourth-quarter profit guide and a 2026 ad revenue forecast cut to $2.7 billion from about $3 billion. SPX closed at 7,712.57, up 0.28%, with the Dow up a full percent, the Russell up 1.65% and health care at a record. Premarket 7,730.

Super Micro's sales are the hyperscalers' spending, and one of the biggest buyers reports tonight, Meta, with Tesla and IBM. All season the market has made companies pay for what AI costs them, and Meta fell 9% in July when its free cash flow collapsed under the capex line. Rates matter here too. For two weeks the 10-year has fallen when chips fall, and it slipped to 5.12% Tuesday as the semiconductor index finished a bit lower. A chip rally off a big Meta capex number takes that bid away, with Brent still around $109 and the Fed meeting a week out. Oil came off Tuesday's $111 after Bloomberg reported that talk of a near US-Iran deal was wrong, and Pezeshkian said there will be no talks until the US lifts sanctions. No data today.

The profile flipped positive. Premarket sits 10 over the 7,720 flip, on the short daily averages, so the open lands where dealers sell rips and buy dips. The 7,750 call wall sits on Tuesday's 7,748 high, but the strikes above it are nearly as big and stay positive for another 40 points, so a clean break pulls higher. The shelf underneath is narrow. The 7,700 put wall is almost three times any negative strike near it and sits on the 50-day, and every strike between it and the flip is negative.

The lean is long on a dip into 7,720, where the flip meets prior demand 7,719 with the 8-day and 21-day at 7,725 just over it, for 7,746 and 7,755 over the call wall, not on the open in the middle of the averages. A hold under 7,712, Tuesday's close and prior demand, ends it and opens the put wall. Meta and Tesla land after the close, which argues for taking the targets before the last hour.