Iran Strike Plans Send Brent to $112, and SPX Gaps Under the 7,700 Put Wall

The US and Israel have drawn up plans to hit Iran again. The New York Times reported late Wednesday that the two militaries are preparing a short but intensive operation for after the midterms, aimed at energy infrastructure, nuclear sites and missile stocks, though Trump hasn't approved it and says nothing happens before the vote. Defense Secretary Hegseth met Netanyahu in Israel this week. Washington also pulled non-emergency staff out of Saudi Arabia after a deadly attack on the Dammam airport. Brent is up about 3%, near $112. SPX closed at 7,757.17, up 0.58%, with the Nasdaq up 1% and chips up 2%. Premarket 7,688.

Meta had a better answer before the Times story landed. Revenue grew 26% and the company lifted the bottom of its capex range to $135 billion with free cash flow turning negative, and the stock still rallied after the bell, not how this season treats companies raising the spend. That's gone. Meta is down about 2% premarket, Tesla about 4% on heavier spending plans after this year, and Lam Research about 9% even though its guide topped estimates. The 10-year fell to 5.04% with the chips, as it has for two weeks, and it's falling with oil up, so bonds are reading this as a growth scare first. Jobless claims came in low at 194,000, with leading indicators at 10:00.

The profile is close to eight to one negative, and premarket sits 52 under the 7,740 flip. Price gapped under the puts, so the 7,700 put wall, with prior demand 7,698 and the 50-day on it, is resistance on the way back up. The strikes at 7,680-7,685 are almost as heavy and sit right at the open, so dealers chase moves both ways from the first minutes instead of damping them. Nothing turns positive until 7,745, and the 7,785 call wall is a small fraction of the put wall. Underneath, the negatives stay heavy through 7,650 and then thin out, so that's where the selling fuel runs low.

Rallies into 7,700 are for fading, where the put wall sits on prior demand 7,698 and the 50-day 7,705, with targets at 7,681 and Tuesday's 7,668 low. A hold over 7,713, the 8-week and Wednesday's low, ends the short, and there is no long case until 7,720 is back.