Warsh at Sintra, 7,500 Overhead — SPX Morning Note, Jul 1, 2026

Key numbers

7,480.98: Premarket

SPX closed 7,499 yesterday — one point below the call wall at 7,500. Premarket is 7,481, down 18 points. The Dow closed at a record 52,319. The S&P just posted its best quarter since 2020, up over 14%. Nasdaq up 20%. Now we start the second half.

The Fed held at 3.50%–3.75% at the June FOMC. Warsh was hawkish. Investors boosted odds of a September hike. Today Warsh speaks at the ECB's Sintra Forum at 9:00 AM alongside Lagarde, Bailey, and Macklem — his first public appearance outside the U.S. since taking office. ADP at 8:15 (forecast 118K). ISM Manufacturing at 9:00 (forecast 53.8). Tomorrow is nonfarm payrolls before an early close for the Fourth.

Premarket is 76 points above the gamma flip at 7,405. Positive gamma. The call wall at 7,500 is 19 points above — yesterday's close couldn't clear it. The put wall at 7,400 is 81 points below, right on top of the flip.

7,500 rejected once already. If Warsh sounds hawkish again, 7,405 and the put wall at 7,400 are the levels below. If 7,500 clears, there's nothing stacked above it on the GEX board.

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Big Picture Levels

7,427: 7,430 — 13 EMA (daily), 8 EMA (daily), 21 EMA (daily).
7,379: 7,398 — 8-week EMA, 50-day SMA.
7,186: 21-week EMA. Only Friday's close matters.
7,099: 20-week SMA.
7,074: 100-day SMA.
6,934: 200-day SMA.

Today's Trading

Primary range: 7,451 – 7,497
7,513.95: Prior demand. Resistance.
7,505.64: Prior demand. Resistance.
7,500: Call wall. Magnet. Ceiling.
7,497.24: Ceiling. Call wall area.
7,494.06: Prior demand. Resistance.
7,488.18: Prior demand. Resistance.
7,480.98: Premarket.
7,476.82: Multi-session support.
7,465.50: Support.
7,457.31: Multi-session support.
7,451.25: Floor.
7,446.92: 20 SMA (daily) area.
7,444.78: 20 SMA (daily) area.
7,442.54: 20 SMA (daily).
7,436.60: Multi-session support.
7,429.22: 8 EMA (daily) area.
7,425.57: 8 EMA (daily) area.
7,419.43: Multi-session support.
7,412.42: Multi-session support.
7,405: Gamma flip. The regime line.
7,400: Put wall.

GEX Profile (July 01, 2026)

Call Wall: 7,500. 19 points above premarket. Yesterday's close stopped one tick short. Resistance until reclaimed.
Gamma Flip: ~7,405. 76 points below premarket at 7,405. Positive gamma. The flip and put wall are within 5 points of each other — if one breaks, both break.
Put Wall: 7,400. 81 points below at 7,400. Clustered with the flip. A Warsh-driven selloff finds both levels in the same zone.

Call wall, gamma flip, put wall — what they mean and why they run the session.

Execution Levels

Long Plan

Entry	Why	Targets
Dip Buy: 7,477	Support. 4 points below premarket.	7,488, 7,500 (call wall), 7,514
Second Bid: 7,466	Support.	7,481, 7,500 (call wall), 7,514
Deep Bid: 7,400	Put wall. Dense negative gamma.	7,412, 7,427 (21 EMA), 7,443 (20 SMA)
Extreme: 7,385	Support. Deep negative gamma.	7,398 (8w EMA), 7,412, 7,427 (21 EMA)
Reclaim: 7,497	Through resistance. Extension toward the call wall.	7,514
Continuation: 7,514	Extension.	7,530, 7,540, 7,560

Short Plan

Entry	Why	Targets
Fade pops to: 7,488-7,499	Resistance approaching the call wall.	7,477, 7,466, 7,457
Below 7,405	Loss of the gamma flip. Regime shift to negative gamma.	7,379 (50-day SMA), 7,369, 7,360
Below 7,400	Loss of the put wall. Negative gamma accelerating.	7,379 (50-day SMA), 7,369, 7,360
Breakdown: 7,385	Multi-session support.	7,369, 7,360, 7,352

How the entry tiers and targets are built: the SPX 0DTE strategy guide.

VIX Levels

15.29
15.62
15.79
16.26
16.65
17.11 key
17.15
18.01 key

Educational research, not investment advice. Levels and the plan describe how the desk framed that session and are published after it closed.