OpenAI Holds Back Its Next Model a Day After Nvidia's Record Buyback

OpenAI held back its next model on safety grounds. The chip complex is higher premarket anyway. GPT-6.1 Astra "didn't quite meet the bar," its head of safety systems said, after it kept pushing past a task's scope without permission, and NPR reports training on OpenAI's most advanced models was paused last week. Monday Nvidia added $150 billion to its buyback, the largest on record, and the Nasdaq still fell 0.9%. SPX closed 7,683.69, down 0.8%, with the ten-year at 5.24%, its highest since 2007. Premarket 7,694.

Two weeks ago a lab only talking about slowing down took the chip index down almost 6% at its lows and sent the money to the hyperscalers, on the logic that they could stop building and harvest what they already had. Now a lab has actually stopped, and Nvidia, AMD and Micron are all up, a day before Micron reports. Part of that is the $235 billion Nvidia can now spend on its own stock, the same defense Hynix used in August. Part of it is oil. WTI is back near $91 on renewed US-Iran diplomacy and the ten-year has eased to about 5.22%. Monday opened at 7,722, never got past 7,724 and fell from there. JOLTS and consumer confidence land at 10:00, PCE and Micron Wednesday, payrolls Friday.

The profile eased overnight, from about two and a half to one negative Monday to about 1.6 to one, and the flip dropped 40 points to 7,690. Premarket sits 4 over it, in a strip of near-zero gamma at 7,695 and 7,700, with the positive block starting at 7,705 and building into the call wall at 7,725, where 7,720 and 7,730 are nearly as heavy. Above 7,735 the gamma runs at a quarter of the wall's size or less, so clearing it doesn't get much pull. Under the flip it's negative almost strike for strike, with prior demand at 7,681, 7,677 and 7,670 and three averages in between before the put wall block at 7,650 and 7,660. That 7,670 shelf is where Monday's selling stopped.

The long is at the flip, 7,690, for 7,713 and the 7,725 call wall. 7,725 is for taking profit, since that's where Monday stalled. A close under 7,681 puts price in negative gamma with the 21-day gone, and 7,670 comes fast. Over 7,735, 7,746 and 7,755 open.