Warsh Takes the Chair — SPX Morning Note, May 18, 2026

Key numbers

7,408.60: Premarket

SPX closed 7,408 Friday and is flat premarket at 7,409. No gap. The calm is misleading.

Kevin Warsh officially replaced Powell on Friday after a 54-45 confirmation — the closest Fed chair vote in history. Rate cut expectations for 2026 are now zero. Hike odds have climbed to 45%. The 10-year is at 4.63%, up 16 bps in four sessions. Meanwhile, Middle East escalation over the weekend sent Brent to $111 and WTI to $108 after attacks on energy infrastructure across the Gulf, including a nuclear facility in the UAE. VIX is 18.99, up from Friday's 18.43. FOMC minutes Wednesday alongside Nvidia earnings.

Premarket is 16 points below the gamma flip at 7,425. Negative gamma. The put wall at 7,400 is 9 points below. The call wall at 7,450 is 41 points above.

7,400 is right here. If that breaks, the 8 EMA at 7,393 is the next stop. If 7,425 reclaims, the call wall at 7,450 becomes the target.

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Big Picture Levels

7,248: 21 EMA (daily).
7,127: 8-week EMA.
6,929: 21-week EMA. Only Friday's close matters.
6,908: 20-week SMA.
6,913: 100-day SMA.
6,921: 50-day SMA.
6,780: 200-day SMA.

Today's Trading

Primary range: 7,393 – 7,419
7,450: Call wall. Magnet. Ceiling.
7,436.60: Prior demand. Resistance.
7,429.22: Gamma flip at 7425 converges.
7,425: Gamma flip. The regime line.
7,419.43: Ceiling.
7,412.42: Prior demand. Resistance.
7,408.60: Premarket.
7,400: Put wall.
7,393.30: 8 EMA (daily).
7,384.88: Multi-session support.
7,376.92: Multi-session support.
7,368.57: Multi-session support.
7,359.93: Multi-session support.
7,355.15: Support.
7,351.68: Support.
7,347.15: Support.

GEX Profile (May 18, 2026)

Call Wall: 7,450. 41 points above premarket. Resistance until the flip reclaims.
Gamma Flip: ~7,425. 16 points above. Negative gamma. The regime flips at 7,425.
Put Wall: 7,400. 9 points below premarket. Immediate downside anchor.

Call wall, gamma flip, put wall — what they mean and why they run the session.

Execution Levels

Long Plan

Entry	Why	Targets
Dip Buy: 7,400	Support. Near the put wall.	7,412, 7,425 (flip), 7,437
Second Bid: 7,385	Support.	7,412, 7,425 (flip), 7,437
Deep Bid: 7,377	Support.	7,393 (8 EMA), 7,412, 7,425 (flip)
Extreme: 7,369	Support. Deep negative gamma.	7,393 (8 EMA), 7,412, 7,425 (flip)
Reclaim: 7,419	Through resistance. Extension toward the call wall.	7,437, 7,450 (call wall)
Continuation: 7,450	Through the call wall. New territory.	7,460, 7,480, 7,500

Short Plan

Entry	Why	Targets
Fade: 7,450	Call wall.	7,437, 7,425 (flip), 7,412
Below 7,400	Loss of the put wall. Negative gamma accelerating.	7,385, 7,369, 7,360
Breakdown: 7,393	8 EMA (daily). First MA break.	7,377, 7,369, 7,360

How the entry tiers and targets are built: the SPX 0DTE strategy guide.

VIX Levels

17.11 key
17.15
18.01 key
18.40
18.48
19.27
19.35 key
19.53
19.68
19.86

Educational research, not investment advice. Levels and the plan describe how the desk framed that session and are published after it closed.