Morning Note · Wednesday, July 8, 2026
Iran Escalation, FOMC Minutes at 2
Sent to members at 8:30 AM ET on Jul 8, 2026. Posted here the next trading day.
Key numbers
- 7,450.36
- Premarket
SPX gapped down 53 points overnight. Trump declared the Iran ceasefire over after fresh strikes. WTI crude surged 6.2%. Futures are trading 7,450 — below yesterday's 7,503 close and 65 points below the gamma flip.
Samsung dropped 8% even after a 19x profit beat, dragging chipmakers. Gold fell 2.3% to $4,060. VIX opened 16.36, up 5% from yesterday. The afternoon catalyst is the FOMC minutes from the June meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET — nine dot-plot submissions pointed to a 2026 rate hike. Warsh withheld his projection entirely. Rates held at 3.50–3.75%. CME FedWatch has 75%+ odds of a hold at the July meeting.
We're 65 points below the gamma flip at 7,515. Negative gamma. The put wall at 7,475 is 25 points below premarket. The call wall at 7,525 is 75 points above. The 8 EMA daily at 7,477 sits right between here and the put wall. The 21-week EMA at 7,214 is 237 points below — irrelevant until Friday.
If 7,475 breaks, the 50-day SMA at 7,411 is the next reference. FOMC minutes at 2:00 p.m. will define the second half of the session.
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Big Picture Levels
- 7,214
- 21-week EMA. Only Friday's close matters.
- 7,128
- 20-week SMA.
- 7,098
- 100-day SMA.
- 6,952
- 200-day SMA.
Today's Trading
- Primary range
- 7,419 – 7,497
- 7,525
- Call wall. Magnet. Ceiling.
- 7,515
- Gamma flip. The regime line.
- 7,505.64
- Prior demand. Resistance.
- 7,499.47
- Prior demand. Resistance.
- 7,497.24
- Ceiling.
- 7,494.06
- Prior demand. Resistance.
- 7,488.18
- Prior demand. Resistance.
- 7,481.01
- 8 EMA (daily) area.
- 7,475
- Put wall.
- 7,465.50
- 13 EMA (daily) area.
- 7,457.31
- Prior demand. Resistance.
- 7,450.36
- Premarket.
- 7,446.92
- 21 EMA (daily) area.
- 7,444.78
- Multi-session support.
- 7,436.60
- 20 SMA (daily) area.
- 7,429.22
- Multi-session support.
- 7,425.57
- Multi-session support.
- 7,419.43
- Floor. 8-week EMA area.
- 7,412.42
- 50-day SMA area.
- 7,400.24
- Multi-session support.
- 7,384.88
- Multi-session support.
- 7,376.92
- Multi-session support.
GEX Profile (July 08, 2026)
- Call Wall
- 7,525. 75 points above premarket. Resistance unless the gap fills and we reclaim the flip first.
- Gamma Flip
- ~7,515. 7,515 — gapped below it overnight. Negative gamma. A gap fill would need to reclaim this level to shift the regime.
- Put Wall
- 7,475. 7,475. 25 points below. The 8 EMA daily at 7,477 is sitting right on top of it.
Call wall, gamma flip, put wall — what they mean and why they run the session.
Execution Levels
Long Plan
| Entry | Why | Targets |
|---|---|---|
| Dip Buy: 7,435 | Below premarket. | 7,451 (21 EMA), 7,464 (13 EMA), 7,477 (8 EMA) |
| Second Bid: 7,429 | Support. | 7,451 (21 EMA), 7,464 (13 EMA), 7,477 (8 EMA) |
| Deep Bid: 7,419 | Support. | 7,436 (20 SMA), 7,451 (21 EMA), 7,464 (13 EMA) |
| Extreme: 7,412 | Support. Deep negative gamma. | 7,426, 7,436 (20 SMA), 7,451 (21 EMA) |
| Reclaim: 7,497 | Through the gamma flip. Call wall right above — reclaim IS the breakout. | 7,515 (flip), 7,525 (call wall) |
| Continuation: 7,525 | Through the call wall. New territory. | 7,540, 7,560, 7,580 |
Short Plan
| Entry | Why | Targets |
|---|---|---|
| Fade pops to: 7,488-7,499 | Resistance approaching the call wall. | 7,477 (8 EMA), 7,464 (13 EMA), 7,451 (21 EMA) |
| Below 7,475 | Loss of the put wall. Negative gamma accelerating. | 7,464 (13 EMA), 7,451 (21 EMA), 7,436 (20 SMA) |
| Breakdown: 7,477 | 8 EMA (daily). First MA break. | 7,464 (13 EMA), 7,451 (21 EMA), 7,436 (20 SMA) |
How the entry tiers and targets are built: the SPX 0DTE strategy guide.
VIX Levels
- 16.65
- 17.11 key
- 17.15
- 18.01 key
- 18.40
- 18.48
- 19.27
- 19.35 key
Educational research, not investment advice. Levels and the plan describe how the desk framed that session and are published after it closed.