Oil Undid the Jobs Relief, CPI… — SPX Morning Note, Aug 11, 2026

Key numbers

7,765: Premarket
7,780: Call wall
7,745: Gamma flip
7,700: Put wall

Four straight sessions higher in crude and the whole post-payrolls story is gone. Brent is near $87.75, up about 5% Monday alone and 12% off last week's low, after Trump added a demand for US compensation from Iran and the Hormuz reopening turned into a stalemate. The 10-year tops 4.72%. Cleveland's Hammack said it may take more than one hike to get inflation down. Softer jobs bought the market a week; oil took it back.

So everything sits on tomorrow's CPI. July headline is seen at 0.1% on the month, 3.4% annual against 3.5%, with core at 2.5%. PPI follows Thursday. Hike odds for September are back to a coin flip near 44%, and this print decides which way that goes. Monday closed a touch lower at 7,753, futures are flat, and CoreWeave and Super Micro report tonight with AI capex under fresh scrutiny after the Intel and Nvidia fundraising news.

Premarket 7,765 is boxed into a tight band. The call wall at 7,780 is 15 above — the biggest node by a wide margin. The flip is 20 below at 7,745, and prior demand sits right on it at 7,746. That's a clean profile: positive gamma in between, and below 7,745 the negatives run dense and uninterrupted all the way down to the put wall at 7,700, where prior demand at 7,698 lines up. Supported in the band, real fuel underneath it.

Hold 7,745 and this grinds between the flip and the wall — that's the base case on a day with no data. Clear 7,780 and new highs open up. Lose 7,745 and there's no pocket to catch it before 7,700. Nothing today forces the move, so I'd rather be light into the number than positioned for it.

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Big Picture Levels

7,757: Friday's record close.
7,664: 8 EMA (daily).
7,614: 13 EMA (daily).
7,570: 21 EMA (daily).
7,537: 20 SMA (daily).
7,498: 50-day SMA.
7,361: 21-week EMA. Price well above — trend intact.
7,055: 200-day SMA.

Today's Trading

Primary range: 7,745 – 7,780
7,800: Heavy positive gamma.
7,785: Heavy positive gamma.
7,780: Call wall. Biggest positive.
7,770: Positive gamma.
7,765: Premarket.
7,763: Prior resistance.
7,755: Prior demand.
7,745: 7,746 — Gamma flip + prior demand.
7,735: Heavy negative gamma.
7,725: Heavy negative gamma.
7,715: Heavy negative gamma.
7,698: 7,700 — Put wall + prior demand.

GEX Profile (Aug 11)

Call Wall: 7,780. Biggest node by a wide margin, 15 above premarket. Clear it and 7,785 and 7,800 open up; fail and it caps a third straight session.
Gamma Flip: ~7,745. 20 below, with prior demand at 7,746 sitting on it. Clean crossover — positives above, negatives below, no chop in between.
Put Wall: 7,700. Heaviest negative, 65 below, with prior demand at 7,698. The negatives from 7,745 down are dense and continuous, so losing the flip runs straight at it.

Call wall, gamma flip, put wall — what they mean and why they run the session.

Execution Levels

Long Plan

Entry	Why	Targets
Dip Buy: 7,755	Prior demand below premarket.	7,765, 7,775, 7,780
Deep Bid: 7,745-7,746	The flip and prior demand together.	7,755, 7,765, 7,780
Extreme: 7,698-7,700	The put wall with prior demand on it.	7,720, 7,745, 7,755
Reclaim: above 7,780	Through the wall.	7,790, 7,800, 7,810
Continuation:	through 7,810 → 7,820, 7,835, 7,850.	not stated

Short Plan

Entry	Why	Targets
Fade pops to: 7,780–7,790	The call wall.	7,765, 7,755, 7,746
Breakdown: loss of 7,745	Below the flip into dense negatives.	7,735, 7,725, 7,715
Below 7,715	7,700 (put wall), 7,690, 7,675.	not stated

How the entry tiers and targets are built: the SPX 0DTE strategy guide.

VIX Levels

14.78
15.29
15.62 key
15.79
16.26
16.65
17.11 key

VIX 15.46, firming with oil. Under 15.29 and the band holds. Over 16.26 and 7,745 gets tested before CPI.

Educational research, not investment advice. Levels and the plan describe how the desk framed that session and are published after it closed.