Iran Offered a Two-Day Plan for Hormuz, and Oil Went Back Under $100

Iran offered a two-day plan to reopen Hormuz. Foreign Minister Araghchi said the talks through Qatar cut the timetable from five days to two, with the U.S. moving first on sanctions relief and Iran reopening the strait the next day, and it now depends on Washington's answer. WTI is down about 4%, back under $100, and Brent is around $109. Futures are up about 0.3%. ISM manufacturing is at 10:00. Apple and Palantir report after the close, and the midterms are tomorrow. SPX closed 7,580.07 Friday, down 1.82%, its worst day since June. Premarket 7,610.

Friday turned the AI trade around. Early last week the tape paid the companies selling into the buildout and sold the ones paying for it, Meta twice and then Alphabet, and by Friday the suppliers were the ones getting hit. The semiconductor index fell 7.2%, with Intel down 28.6% and AMD almost 11%. Amazon was down nearly 8% before Friday's open on its report and closed down 1.4%. The spender got bought back inside one session and the chips didn't. The equal-weight S&P fell less than half what the index did, so this is still a selloff in one corner, and AMD reports Tuesday into it.

The profile ran about 16 to 1 negative Friday. It's slightly positive now, and premarket sits right on the 7,605 flip in a band where the strikes keep switching sign, so the first half hour is likely chop. Above the band every strike is positive. The call wall at 7,660 has more than twice its own gamma sitting between it and 7,700, which makes it a level that pulls price through once it's taken. Under the flip it's negative all the way down. The put wall is far below and thin, so the floor that matters is 7,570, the heaviest negatives near price, just under Friday's close and on the 21-week.

The lean is long on a dip into 7,598, prior demand just under the flip, for 7,616 and 7,631, with 7,660 the target if oil keeps falling. Buying 7,610 at the open buys the middle of the chop. A loss of 7,568, the floor and the 21-week, ends the long.