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Options Flow Intelligence

Signal Performance & Analysis

7 independent detection modules scanning the full OPRA options tape. Isolating true directional flow from institutional noise.

Not every options print is a signal. Most aren't. Alpha Pod runs 7 independent detection modules against the full OPRA options tape. Spread detection, tiered scoring, multi-signal context scoring, and round-trip suppression filter institutional hedges and noise before anything reaches your feed.

Pipeline

Flow scanner → Tiered scoring → Spread detection → IV context → EOD netting → OI positioning → 20-day tracking

1,763
contracts tracked
702
tickers
51
trading days
7
filter modules
71%
of flagged contracts peaked above +5% profit within 5 trading days
+56%
Avg peak gain
18%
Contracts doubled
2d
Time to peak
Rule Performance

Consistency (profit rate) vs magnitude (avg peak). Bubble size = signal count.

Top-right = highest consistency + highest peak profit

Ranked by profit rate

Signal Anatomy

Contract performance by signal type. Profitable* = peaked above +5% within 5 days.

Call buys n=1,326
Bullish — buying calls at the ask
Profitable*72%
Peak contract profit+58%
Still profitable at close31%
Hit +50%35%
Doubled (+100%)18%
Put buys n=341
Bearish — buying puts at the ask
Profitable*70%
Peak contract profit+49%
Still profitable at close33%
Hit +50%34%
Doubled (+100%)16%
Put sells n=861
Bullish — selling puts at the bid (stock metrics)
Avg stock move (5d)+6.4%
Avg stock move (10d)+8.1%
Call sells n=26
Bearish — selling calls at the bid (stock metrics)
Avg stock move (5d)+3.9%
Avg stock move (10d)+4.1%
Capturing the Move

The signals consistently identify contracts that spike — 71% peaked profitable within 5 days. The key for members is timing the exit.

Peaked profitable
71%
Still profitable at close
32%
Didn't hold at close
39%

Avg contract: +56% peak → -10% at close. Median time to peak: 2 days.

Most of the move happens within 48 hours of alert.

0–7 DTE
Time to peak2d
Peaked profitable74%
Avg peak+117%
Fastest decay — exit same day or next
8–30 DTE
Time to peak2d
Peaked profitable73%
Avg peak+61%
Sweet spot — most consistent returns
30+ DTE
Time to peak2d
Peaked profitable69%
Avg peak+36%
Slower theta — wider exit window

Contract lifecycle: peak vs close over 20 days

Peak gain (hindsight) Close return
Strategy Simulator

Backtest exit strategies against real signal data. Below: +50% target, -30% stop loss, +10% breakeven, call buys only, $500/trade.

Simulated: +50% target, -30% SL, +10% B/E, call buys, $500/trade

+162.2%
$26,221 from $10,000
Win rate30.1%
Avg return+0.12%
Max DD-30.3%
Trades1,326
399 wins 319 B/E 531 stopped 77 held
Deeper Look

How far contracts run

1,405 call buys · 358 put buys

Contract gain distribution

5-day peak gain including losers

By sector

10 sectors tracked
SectornProfitableAvg peak
Technology58674%+62%
Consumer Cyclical15360%+33%
Financial Services13168%+37%
Industrials12381%+66%
Communication Services9477%+80%
Healthcare9052%+42%
Basic Materials6572%+48%
Energy6082%+69%
Utilities2075%+25%
Consumer Defensive1258%+23%

Time of day & DTE

Profit rate by hour (ET) and expiration

By hour (ET)

By DTE at signal

Vol/OI & conviction clustering

Does "more unusual" or repeated flow = better?

Vol/OI ratio

Conviction clustering

Weekly consistency

Feb 15+ only, call buys vs put buys
Methodology
· Peak gain uses daily contract highs from Polygon — the highest traded price, not a quote.
· "Profitable" = contract peaked above +5% within the horizon, inclusive of a slippage hurdle for bid-ask spreads.
· Best potential exit is the cumulative max contract price — it represents hindsight, not achievable return without profit-taking.
· Day 0 (intraday on alert day) not included. Tracking begins next trading day.
· Expired or dead contracts assigned -100% loss (survivor bias correction).
· Deduplication: same ticker + direction within 60 minutes collapsed into one signal.
· Data range: Jan 21, 2026 – Apr 02, 2026. Generated April 04, 2026 09:26 PM.
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Get real-time options flow signals, live alerts, and access to the full strategy simulator in your membership.

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