Alpha Pod — SPX Morning Notehttps://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/ The SPX Morning Note, published in full one trading day after members receive it.en-us A Hike Is Now The Base Case — SPX Morning Note, Sep 10, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-09-10/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-09-10/Fri, 11 Sep 2026 08:35:04 -0400A September hike is now the base case. Flip 7,640, range 7,600–7,680. Ten Tankers In Seven Days — SPX Morning Note, Sep 9, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-09-09/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-09-09/Thu, 10 Sep 2026 07:43:42 -0400CENTCOM destroyed five more Iranian oil tankers on Tuesday. Flip 7,695, range 7,616–7,730. Reopening Is Not De-escalation — SPX Morning Note, Sep 8, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-09-08/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-09-08/Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:55:54 -0400The US struck three Iranian oil tankers over the weekend. Flip 7,705, range 7,650–7,750. The Wrong Number to Settle It — SPX Morning Note, Sep 4, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-09-04/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-09-04/Tue, 08 Sep 2026 08:05:41 -0400Waller moved the September hike. Flip 7,720, range 7,700–7,800. Sold On a Rounding Error — SPX Morning Note, Sep 3, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-09-03/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-09-03/Fri, 04 Sep 2026 07:56:42 -0400Broadcom missed its guide by seven-tenths of a percent. Flip 7,665, range 7,616–7,700. The Round Trip Is Complete — SPX Morning Note, Sep 2, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-09-02/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-09-02/Thu, 03 Sep 2026 18:10:06 -0400The US struck Iran around Hormuz on Tuesday. Flip 7,630, range 7,580–7,675. The Rout Went Global — SPX Morning Note, Sep 1, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-09-01/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-09-01/Thu, 03 Sep 2026 18:10:06 -0400The bond selloff went global overnight. Flip 7,695, range 7,610–7,705. Struck In The Strait — SPX Morning Note, Aug 31, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-31/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-31/Thu, 03 Sep 2026 18:10:06 -0400The US struck Iran inside the Strait of Hormuz. Flip 7,705, range 7,650–7,750. Warsh Speaks At Ten — SPX Morning Note, Aug 28, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-28/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-28/Thu, 03 Sep 2026 18:10:05 -0400Warsh speaks at ten, his first Jackson Hole as Chair. Flip 7,720, range 7,700–7,770. Nvidia Broke The Pattern — SPX Morning Note, Aug 27, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-27/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-27/Thu, 03 Sep 2026 18:10:05 -0400Nvidia broke the pattern. Flip 7,675, range 7,675–7,745. Iran And Oman Open A Route Through Hormuz — SPX Morning Note, Aug 26, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-26/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-26/Thu, 03 Sep 2026 18:10:05 -0400Iran and Oman agreed to open a route through Hormuz. Flip 7,665, range 7,655–7,715. The Biggest Iran Move Yet, And Crude Fell — SPX Morning Note, Aug 25, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-25/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-25/Thu, 03 Sep 2026 18:10:05 -0400Trump's global Iran sanctions plan landed Monday. Flip 7,660, range 7,650–7,725. Fifty Percent On Canada, And Yields Fell — SPX Morning Note, Aug 24, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-24/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-24/Thu, 03 Sep 2026 18:10:05 -0400Trade talks with Canada collapsed over the weekend. Flip 7,670, range 7,630–7,710. Everything Beats, Nothing Lifts — SPX Morning Note, Aug 21, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-21/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-21/Thu, 03 Sep 2026 18:10:05 -0400The Dow lost more than 700 points and SPX closed 7,641, down 0.87%, and none of it was about earnings. Flip 7,685, range 7,640–7,700. The Refund Cuts Both Ways — SPX Morning Note, Aug 20, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-20/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-20/Thu, 03 Sep 2026 18:10:05 -0400Walmart beat on every line and the stock is down 5%. Revenue $187.9 billion, comps and the full-year outlook both higher. Flip 7,720, range 7,620–7,720. Twenty-Nine Billion, Handed Back — SPX Morning Note, Aug 19, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-19/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-19/Thu, 03 Sep 2026 18:10:05 -0400SK Hynix is buying back $29 billion of its own stock. Flip 7,705, range 7,650–7,763. The Long End Isn't Arguing About September — SPX Morning Note, Aug 18, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-18/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-18/Thu, 03 Sep 2026 18:10:05 -0400A cargo ship took a projectile crossing Hormuz. Brent is back above $90 and the long end went with it. Flip 7,760, range 7,650–7,760. The Gamma Is Above Us, Not Under Us — SPX Morning Note, Aug 17, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-17/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-17/Thu, 03 Sep 2026 18:10:05 -0400The heavy positive gamma isn't where price is. It's overhead. Flip 7,775, range 7,755–7,825. Above 7,800, Retail Sales at 8:30 — SPX Morning Note, Aug 14, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-14/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-14/Thu, 03 Sep 2026 18:10:05 -0400Producer prices came in flat for July. Forecasts said +0.2%. Flip 7,775, range 7,760–7,830. Thick Above, Thin Below, PPI at 8:30 — SPX Morning Note, Aug 13, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-13/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-13/Thu, 03 Sep 2026 18:10:05 -0400Cerebras beat on adjusted earnings and raised the full year to $880-890M. Flip 7,745, range 7,745–7,800. Pinned Until 8:30 — SPX Morning Note, Aug 12, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-12/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-12/Thu, 03 Sep 2026 18:10:05 -0400CPI at 8:30. That's the session. Flip 7,730, range 7,700–7,800. Oil Undid the Jobs Relief, CPI Tomorrow — SPX Morning Note, Aug 11, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-11/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-11/Thu, 03 Sep 2026 18:10:05 -0400Four straight sessions higher in crude and the whole post-payrolls story is gone. Flat at the Highs — SPX Morning Note, Aug 10, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-10/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-10/Thu, 03 Sep 2026 18:10:05 -0400SPX closed at a record 7,757.64 Friday and is trading 7,752 premarket — essentially unchanged. No gap. No catalyst until Wednesday's CPI. Friday, Jobs, 7740 — SPX Morning Note, Aug 7, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-07/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-07/Thu, 03 Sep 2026 18:10:05 -0400It's Friday. SPX gapped up 23 points to 7,733 premarket — 7 points below the call wall at 7,740. The 21-week EMA at 7,318 is 416 points below. New Highs, Soft Jobs — SPX Morning Note, Aug 6, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-06/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-06/Thu, 03 Sep 2026 18:10:05 -0400SPX tagged a new all-time high yesterday, then gave it all back and closed down 17 basis points. Record Close, Record Gap — SPX Morning Note, Aug 5, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-05/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-05/Thu, 03 Sep 2026 18:10:05 -0400SPX is trading 7,775 premarket — a 39-point gap above yesterday's record close at 7,736. Four straight sessions higher. First print above 7,700 was yesterday. Gap Up Into New Highs — SPX Morning Note, Aug 4, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-04/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-04/Thu, 03 Sep 2026 18:10:04 -0400SPX is trading 7,627 premarket — 26 points above yesterday's close of 7,600.50. That's a gap over Friday's high into territory we haven't traded before. Gap Over the Call Wall — SPX Morning Note, Aug 3, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-03/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-08-03/Thu, 03 Sep 2026 18:10:04 -0400SPX is trading 7,525 premarket — gapping 35 points above Friday's close at 7,490 and clearing the call wall at 7,520. Friday at the Flip — SPX Morning Note, Jul 31, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-07-31/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-07-31/Thu, 03 Sep 2026 18:10:04 -0400It's Friday. SPX closed 7,437 yesterday — up 1.66% on the session — and is trading 7,454 premarket, 16 points above the close. Gap Up Into the Data — SPX Morning Note, Jul 30, 2026https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-07-30/https://alphapodtrading.com/morning-note/2026-07-30/Thu, 03 Sep 2026 18:10:04 -0400SPX is trading 7,368 premarket — a 52-point gap above yesterday's 7,316 close. That puts us 68 points above the put wall at 7,300.