SPX Trade Plan — January 22, 2026
Yesterday was a wild one. While the headlines screamed about the US/Euro trade talks, a lot of the intraday volatility was just noise. As mentioned in yesterday’s note, the only thing that mattered was SPX closing above 6855—and it did just that, with the added bonus of closing a hair above the 6875 structural level. The Technical Reality: While we are in a much healthier spot to add risk, we aren’t out of the woods. SPX remains technically weak, trading below the Daily 8 and 21 EMAs. We are in a “risky but constructive” zone. The bear case is that we are simply building a flag before sinking to close the gap at 6600. The bull case is supported by IWM and RSP, which both recovered from Tuesday’s weakness and look ready to lead again. Macro Check: Japan’s Yield Retreat Our key risk—the Japanese 30-Year Yield—retreated yesterday. This pullback was largely technical, driven by a “flight to safety” bid amid the US/Euro trade tensions. However, the structural fire is still burning. PM Sanae Takaichi has called a snap election for Feb 8, and her record ¥122.3 trillion spending bill is what initially spiked yields to these dangerous levels. Do not take your eyes off this; a “technical retreat” is not a “resolution.” Crypto Update: Crypto found strength exactly where it needed to, with ETH defending 2900. To confirm the turn, we need to see ETH reclaim 3100 and BTC retake the 91,141 level.
We are opening in a Positive Gamma regime, but the board is tight. GEX Profile
GEX Profile
Execution Levels
Long Plan
- Reclaim: A push through 6920 sets up a long targeting 6932, 6940, and the 6950 Call Wall (stretch to 6953).
- Continuation: A breakout through 6954 targets 6971, 6976, 6985, and the 7000 psychological level.
- Dip Buy: Focus on the 6894–6910 zone for a bounce play back toward 6920.
Short Plan
- Fade Pops: Look for heavy resistance at 6954. A rejection here targets 6945, 6940, 6932, and 6920.
- Breakdown: A drop below 6894 targets the 6881 and 6875 Flip.
- Flush: Losing 6875 opens the door to 6865 and the 6850 support, where we likely bottom for the day on extreme weakness.