SPX Trade Plan — January 16, 2026
Today is monthly OPEX (Options Expiration). While the past few expirations have offered clean setups, the typical reality of OPEX is random, violent, and choppy moves as dealers settle massive open interest.
If you want to keep your weekend sanity intact, size down or do not trade at all. The structural flows can override technicals today.
Despite the volatility, the market remains structurally strong. On yesterday’s dip, SPX held exactly where it needed to—defending the Daily 8 EMA at 6937. As we’ve discussed for two weeks, this long consolidation is being resolved to the upside. IWM (Small Caps) and RSP (Equal Weight) are already leading the breakout; SPX is simply lagging. Once it catches up, the move through 7000 could be explosive.
We are opening with the 7000 psychological level very much in play.
GEX Profile
Execution Levels
Long Plan
- Continuation: A break through 6964 sets up a move to 6971 and 6975.
- Breakout: Clearing 6980 opens the path to 6985, 6990, and the massive 7000 wall.
- Blue Sky: A stretch move above 7000 targets 7010, 7015, and 7025.
- Dip Buy: On morning weakness, look for the 6947–6954 zone to hold. If that slips, 6937 (8 EMA) is the “line in the sand” for bulls.
Short Plan
- Breakdown: A loss of 6937 signals a failed hold and sets up a short trade targeting 6932, 6925, and the 6920 support.
- Flush: There is a low probability of breaking below 6920 today, but if we do, the floodgates open. This targets 6914 and 6910, with a potential washout down to 6900, 6884, and the major support at 6875.