SPX Trade Plan — January 15, 2026
The market continues to show a lot of strength despite some headline noise. While SPX and QQQ have exhibited some weakness over the last two sessions, the broader engine remains very healthy. IWM (Small Caps) and RSP (Equal Weight S&P) continue to lead the tape, signaling that market breadth is robust and capital is rotating rather than exiting.
The Risk-On Signal: Crypto
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Crypto has been a major focus this week and it is currently flashing a massive “Risk-On” signal. Bitcoin has consolidated above its key moving averages and successfully retook the $95K mark, with Ethereum also showing renewed strength.
Structural Support: OPEX & VIX
As mentioned to start the week, monthly OPEX flows should remain supportive through Friday. Now that the VIX Expiration (VIXPO) is behind us, we can finally see the VIX’s “true character.” With the volatility dampening effect of the pin removed, we look for the VIX to settle—if it stays subdued, it confirms the path of least resistance remains higher.
For today’s trading, the main objective is to see the Daily 8 EMA reclaim, which sits at approximately SPX 6936. We lost this level yesterday, but a reclaim here would confirm that the short-term uptrend is back in the driver’s seat.
GEX Profile
Execution Levels
Long Plan
- Reclaim (Primary): Look for a hold of 6937. A reclaim of 6940 targets 6947, 6954, and 6960.
- Continuation: A break above 6975 opens the door to the 7000 wall, with a stretch target up to 7025.
- Dip Buy: If we test lower, look for high-volume support at 6925.
Short Plan
- Breakdown: A failure to hold 6932 targets 6924, 6920, and the 6914 level.
- Flush: Losing 6900 (structural support) triggers an acceleration toward 6888, 6884, and the downside stretch target of 6875.
- Short Pops: Look to fade any rejection at the 6959–6975 resistance zone.