SPX Trade Plan — January 14, 2026
Yesterday’s closing print might have looked sluggish, but the engine under the hood remains healthy. While SPX and QQQ saw weakness—largely weighted in software and mega-caps—RSP (Equal Weight) and IWM (Small Caps) remained resilient. This confirms that capital isn’t leaving the market; it’s just rotating.
VIX Expiration (VIXPO):
The monthly VIX futures stop trading at 6:00 AM PST, exactly 30 minutes before the market opens. With VIX currently trading around 17, volatility has been “trapped” overnight between the Put Gamma floor at 16 and the Call Gamma ceiling at 18.
Crypto: “This Time is Different”
Despite the broader market pullback this morning, the structural bid in Crypto remains. Bitcoin is breaking out, and institutional proxies are loading up for a longer-term move.
We are opening around 6937, which is a critical technical junction.
Execution Levels
Long Plan
- Dip Buy (Primary): We are looking for a hold of the 6925–6937 zone (Daily 8 EMA & GEX Magnet). A successful test here sets up a move to 6940, 6947, and 6950.
- Reclaim: A recovery and hold above 6950 stabilizes the chart and targets 6954, 6960, 6964, and 6971.
- Continuation: A break back above 6980 restores the blue-sky trend, targeting 6985 and the 7000 wall.
Short Plan
- Flush: A loss of the 8 EMA and local support at 6932 triggers a flush targeting 6930, 6924, and the 6920 magnet.
- Breakdown: If 6920 fails, the bottom falls out. This targets 6914, 6910, the 6900 strike, and the Daily 21 EMA at 6895.
- Short Pops: Look to fade rallies into 6947–6954 (previous support turned resistance). Targets back down would be 6940, 6937, and 6932.