SPX Trade Plan — January 12, 2026
The markets are off to a great start this year. Not only are stocks moving higher, but we have the breadth to support it. IWM, RSP, and momentum names are all marching higher, signaling a healthy “risk-on” environment with ample fuel to power the next leg up. This doesn’t mean stocks go up every single day, but it confirms that the path of least resistance remains higher.
That said, we have two critical structural catalysts to navigate this week:
The Game Plan For VIX expiration, the two primary “magnet” levels are 15 and 18. Market Makers (MMs) will likely attempt to pin volatility at one of these strikes into Wednesday morning. Once VIX unpins post-expiration, the market can move more freely—direction TBD.
We then head into OPEX Friday. Standard monthly option expirations typically add supportive flows as heavy open interest keeps price anchored. If the market wants to sell off, expect OPEX mechanics to provide meaningful support earlier in the week. In short: expect volatility, but trust the structural bid until proven otherwise.
High-Impact Economic Calendar
Wednesday, January 14
For today’s trading, we are looking for SPX to find support at key levels (6875, 6900, 6925) before making its next move higher. Importantly, we want to confirm bulls are in control. Dips are fine, but closing below key levels is not.
GEX Profile
Execution Levels
Long Plan
- Primary Focus: Looking for SPX to find footing at 6894–6900. If this holds, it can set up for a move higher.
- Reclaim: A reclaim of 6925 sets up 6932, 6937, 6940, and 6947.
- Continuation: Through 6954 targets 6964, 6971, 6975, and 6980.
- Stretch: Through 6980 sets up a push toward 7000, with a squeeze max high of 7050.
- Dip Buy: Look for strong support at 6875, which would set up a long back to 6900 and 6925.
Short Plan
- Breakdown: A break below 6894 targets 6875, with intermediate levels at 6888, 6884, and 6881.
- Flush: A failure of 6875 (structural support) opens the door to 6868, 6862, 6856, 6852, 6849, and 6844.
- Extreme: A break below 6844 sets up a move toward 6837 and 6826.
- Short Pops: Look for weakness around 6924–6937. On a break below 6900, look to short pops back to that level.