SPX Trade Plan — December 22, 2025
Last week we survived the gauntlet. As expected, SPX has essentially gone nowhere since FOMC—remaining pinned in the same structural range we’ve been trading since October. But the period of quiet digestion is ending. I believe this is finally the week we get “the move” out of this 6850 orbit.
While there were plenty of reasons to stay cautious last week, those reasons have dwindled. The tape told a different story: the prevailing theme remains the notable bullish flow hitting SPY and QQQ. More importantly, the surge in activity Thursday post-CPI suggests that the big players are finally done “waiting” and are now aggressively positioning for their post-data bets.
Recall our note from December 5th, where we expected higher prices but needed a structural cleanup toward 6764 and 6618. We got the majority of that dip. With structure now “cleaned,” the market is technically allowed to trend higher, especially moving into a lower-volume holiday week.
The range is tired. The flow is bullish. Now we watch the levels to see if the market can actually hold the repair.
The GEX Distortion: Today’s Gamma profile is completely distorted by an Iron Condor whale doubling down after Friday’s loss. This creates a “pinned” feel between 6795 and 6865.
VIX Levels: 14.31, 14.48, 14.62, 14.74, 14.85, 14.91, 15.29, 15.79
Execution Levels
Long Plan
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Short Plan
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