SPX Trade Plan — December 19, 2025
We did it. We survived one of the heaviest weeks of data, news, and events in recent memory—but we’re not quite out of the woods yet.
Today is Triple Witching, where stock options, index options, and futures options all expire simultaneously. Historically, this event creates volatility and unpredictable price action as large positions are rolled or closed. While this can present opportunities, it is prudent to either size down or sit on hands if the action gets messy.
The Look Ahead: After today, the “event risk” clears, and we should see a significant directional move start Monday and carry through year-end.
While the charts show weakness (SPY below key EMAs), I am staying neutral to bullish for one key reason: Flow. Despite the choppy price action, we have seen significant bullish flow across SPY and QQQ this week. Furthermore, after a light-volume start to the week, yesterday (post-CPI) saw a pickup in long delta options activity, specifically in tech names. This is a subtle but constructive sign for the bulls.
Execution Levels
Long Plan
- Reclaim: Through 6780 sets up a move to 6792 and 6800.
- Continuation: Through 6807 targets 6814, 6819, 6826. Through 6826 we can see 6837 and finally 6850.
- Dip Buy: 6780, 6764, 6754, 6726. Or on a backtest of 6826 (if reclaimed).
Short Plan
- Breakdown: A break below 6764 sets up 6754, 6747, 6738–41, 6733, 6726.
- Flush: A break below 6726 sets up 6721, 6715, 6709, 6700.
- Extension: A break below 6700 sets up 6691, 6677, 6671. Below 6642 sets up 6618 and 6610.