SPX Trade Plan — December 17, 2025
Yesterday paid. If you focused on the key SPX 6764 level we’ve discussed for over two weeks, you caught the bottom tick that set up 2x and 10x trades.
However, bulls aren’t out of the woods yet. While the bounce from the lows was relief for the bulls, SPY remains below the 8 and 21 EMA, suggesting sellers still control the trend.
We will find out if that changes today as the “catalyst gauntlet” continues. Yesterday’s data dump was just the release valve; today we face VIX Expiration (VIXPO) this morning and Micron (MU) earnings after the bell. Looking ahead, tomorrow brings CPI, the ECB decision, and Nike/FedEx earnings, followed by OPEX on Friday.
The Volatility Anchor is Gone
As VIX expires this morning, the structural pin around the 16–17 level dissipates. This means the VIX has the freedom to “unpin” and scream higher if the market demands it.
My focus is strictly on VIX. Whether it crushes post-expiration or spikes will be the clue.
Execution Levels
Long Plan
- Reclaim: Through 6826 sets up 6837, 6844, 6849.
- Continuation: Through 6856 provides a swift move up to 6862, 6868, 6875. Through 6875 we march toward 6900 (with 6885 being key resistance).
- Dip Buy: 6800, 6764, 6754, 6726. Or on a backtest of 6826.
Short Plan
- Breakdown: A break below 6798 sets up 6792, 6780, 6775, 6764. A reclaim and break of 6826 sets up 6814, 6807, 6800
- Flush: A break below 6754 sets up 6747, 6738–41, 6733, 6726.
- Extension: A break below 6726 sets up 6721, 6714, 6709.