SPX Trade Plan — December 16, 2025
As noted yesterday, this week is a big one full of data and events. We just got the employment data, which was not great (more on this below), and we still have VIX Expiration tomorrow morning, a Central Bank “Triple Header” later in the week—with the BOJ being the primary focus—and Monthly OPEX on Friday.
The Jobs Report: Growth Scare?
We just got the “double feature” jobs report, and let’s call it what it is: a recessionary red flag. While the headline NFP number (+64k) technically beat lowered expectations, the Unemployment Rate spiked to 4.6%. That moves the needle from “soft landing” straight into “growth scare” territory.
Typically, the market loves bad news because it means Fed cuts—and with wages only up 0.1%, aggressive cuts in 2026 are now guaranteed. But a jump to 4.6% unemployment risks crossing the line where “bad news is just bad news.” Expect yields to compress as the bond market prices in a slowdown, but for equities, we are now caught in a violent tug-of-war between the promise of liquidity and the reality of a stalling economy. Volatility isn’t going anywhere.
Despite the data, there are limitations to how far and fast we can move today. The VIX remains sticky around 16 heading into tomorrow’s pre-market VIXPO, which acts as a volatility anchor.
We could see further downward pressure back into the overnight low of 6770 and potentially as deep as 6686, but with VIX pinned, sellers will need significant momentum to get there.
Execution Levels
Long Plan
- Reclaim: Through 6826 sets up 6837 and 6844.
- Continuation: Through 6856 sets up a move to 6868, 6875.
- Dip Buy: Critical bounce levels on further weakness: 6764, 6754, 6726, 6709, and 6671.
Short Plan
- Breakdown: A break below 6798 sets up 6782, 6780, 6775, 6764.
- Flush: A break below 6754 sets up 6747, 6738–41, 6733, 6726.
- Extension: A break below 6726 sets up 6721, 6714, 6709. Below 6700 sets up 6691, 6677, and 6671.