SPX Trade Plan — December 15, 2025
Since December 3rd, we have anticipated consolidation. On December 10th, we noted that the FOMC meeting might not be the spark needed to break this range. That period of quiet digestion ends today. The wait is over: this is the week we break out or down.
We are walking into a historic “catch-up” week following the government funding lapse. The calendar is packed with volatility triggers, headlined by a “Data Super-Drop” on Tuesday (two months of Jobs Reports and Retail Sales hitting at once) and a Central Bank Triple Header (ECB, BoE, BoJ) later in the week. Add in critical earnings from Micron, Nike, and FedEx, and the environment for consolidation is gone.
Why the setup is explosive:
The Key Volatility Trigger: Watch the 16 level on VIX. This is the key pivot to hold into Wednesday morning’s expiration. Once VIX expiration (VIXPO) clears on Wednesday, the VIX has the structural freedom to unpin and move significantly higher if the macro data dictates it.
Bottom line: Volatility is guaranteed.
For today’s trading: Due to expectations of trickier action/chop ahead of tomorrow’s data drop, I plan to sit out most of the day. However, I will trade specific opportunities if levels trigger.
Execution Levels
Long Plan
- Breakout: Through 6844 sets up 6862.
- Continuation: Through 6862 sets up 6868, 6875. Through 6884 sets up 6894, 6900. Through 6900 sets up 6910, 6920.
- Dip Buy: Retest of 6826 sets up 6837, 6844. Retest of 6807 sets up 6814, 6819, 6826.
Short Plan
- Breakdown: A break below 6837 sets up 6826, 6820, 6814, 6807.
- Flush: A break below 6798 sets up 6782, 6780, 6775, 6764.
- Extension: A break below 6764 sets up 6749, and through there we target 6726.