SPX Trade Plan — December 12, 2025
Out with the Mag 7, in with the Russell 2000.
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is breaking out to all-time highs with barely a peep from the mainstream media, while the Mag 7 struggle to gain momentum.
It’s not just small caps leading the charge. RSP (the Equal Weight S&P 500 ETF) is also breaking out above ATHs on meaningful volume. This signals a clear regime shift: move over Mag 7, the other 493 stocks in the S&P and the 2,000 stocks in the Russell want their shot at prime time. AKA: Rotation.
For the next few weeks, my focus is on anything but NVDA, META, MSFT, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG, and TSLA. Instead, I am looking at everything else.
I remain keen on high-beta names, specifically in quantum and energy (QSI, QBTS, IREN, EOSE). Other small-cap names look excellent as well (JOBY, OPEN, ACHR).
Beyond equities, Crypto looks ready after a tumultuous few months. BTC looks especially primed for a move higher; price is getting tight on the daily with multiple closes above the 8 and 21 EMAs. The last step for BTC to march toward 99k–103k is a clean break through 94,300.
We have a potential range of 6850 to 6950, but practically speaking, we are likely trading 6875–6925.
Execution Levels
Long Plan
- Breakout: Above 6910 targets 6920–6925.
- Extension: Above 6925 targets 6933, 6941. Above 6941 brings 6950. Through 6950, we can see 6970.
- Dip Buy Zones: 6875 provides the best risk/return dip buy. Other retest levels of interest: 6884, 6868, 6856.
Short Plan
- Breakdown: Below 6858 targets 6852, 6844.
- Continuation: Below 6844 targets 6837 and 6826.
- Flush: Below 6826 targets 6807, with 6819, 6814 as levels along the way.