FOMC Day

Today is FOMC day. It's the stock market's main event that happens eight times a year, but instead of producing a decisive winner, FOMC typically delivers whipsaw price action that is inconsistent, prone to reversals, and uncertain at best.

Couple this with ORCL earnings after the bell, and while we'd like today to be the moment we break out of this range trade (and we likely will), it's not clear that today's immediate action will set the definitive trend through year-end.

All this to say: be nimble and focus on key levels.

My personal take is that the market is poised to head much higher into year-end, and FOMC could be the catalyst to start that move. However, with the backdrop of ORCL earnings tonight and the Bank of Japan's policy update next Friday (recall August 2024 for the BOJ's potential impact on global markets), there may be more volatility to digest before the "Santa Rally" truly begins in the last week of the year.

Today's Trading

It is best to wait until after Powell speaks. Primary range: 6810 – 6870.

• Above 6870 provides a choppy ascent to 6925.
• Below 6810 provides a rapid descent down to 6775.

Long Plan

• Breakout: Above 6875 targets 6900, with 6881, 6884, 6888, 6894 as levels along the way.
• Extension: Above 6900 targets 6910, 6920. Above 6930 brings 6950.
• Dip Buy Zones: 6844, 6837, 6826, 6810, 6775, 6765.

Short Plan

• Breakdown: Below 6826 targets 6810, with 6819, 6814 as levels along the way.
• Flush: Below 6798 brings 6764, with 6789–6792, 6780, 6775, 6770 as levels along the way.
• Extension: Below 6764 brings 6750, and below 6750 brings 6726.
• Extreme Weakness: If the bottom falls out, look for 6714, 6709, 6700, and finally 6680.