SPX Trade Plan — December 7, 2025
Morning Note — December 8, 2025 - KASM Capital
Morning Note — December 8, 2025
Calm Before the Storm
Last Wednesday, I noted that we would likely see the market range trade until the FOMC meeting on December 10th (this Wednesday). So far, that thesis is playing out.
Friday’s action was notable, however. SPY saw elevated volume and ran close to 6900 before stopping short right at the trendline (see attached chart). While a breakout ahead of the FOMC decision is possible, I view it as a lower probability event.
We also need to respect the SPX/SPY extension from the weekly 8 EMA. It isn’t stretched enough to turn fully bearish, but it provides yet another reason to expect further consolidation rather than a vertical move. Broadly speaking, the market looks strong—underlying technicals are healthy and indices remain resilient.
We are looking at another range trade setup between 6850 – 6900. The profile tilts slightly more bearish than bullish, and inside this range, price action will likely be difficult and choppy. Take it level by level.
VIX Levels: 15.79, 16.26, 17.11
Watchlist: SNDK, SNAP, HE, ALT, NEE, DOCN
Discussion about this post
Execution Levels
Long Plan
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Short Plan
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