SPX Trade Plan — December 5, 2025
Morning Note — December 5, 2025 - KASM Capital
Morning Note — December 5, 2025
This past week the SPX has chopped within a range while IWM and its respective sh*tcos have found new life. Your favorite Beta name that dropped 50% last month is miraculously up 30-50% this week. So what does this tell us about market dynamics? Are we getting extended again, or is this newfound euphoria fuel for the broader markets (SPX) to participate in further upside?
In yesterday’s note, I mentioned multiple clues suggest SPX heads higher in the near-medium term. However, I’d still prefer one last clean-up of structure—aka one last dip—before the real move up. We don’t always get what we want, so I’ll trade what’s given. This means: swing equities, lighter size on swing options, and for 0DTE SPX, focusing strictly on my system for level-to-level trades.
Okay, but what gives with the title?
Yesterday marked the “Cold Supermoon.” If you follow the “Lunar Cycle Anomaly,” you know that Full Moon windows historically correlate with sluggish returns and indecision. Today, we enter the Waning Gibbous phase—a period the data explicitly associates with distribution and profit-taking.
Whether you believe in celestial mechanics or just standard market exhaustion, the price action agrees: the “easy velocity” is gone for now. The flows suggest we are transitioning from accumulation to distribution, meaning we likely stick to chopping in this range until a new catalyst (like next week’s data) arrives.
To be clear: I don’t trade Lunar Cycles, but it’s a fun way to justify the price action.
We have an interesting setup. Above 6850, we have a choppy ride toward 6900; if we clear that, we chart a path to 6920. Below 6850, the market could unwind quickly toward 6800 and below.
Key SPX levels: 6774 6807 6826 6837 6856 6868 6900
Execution Levels
Long Plan
- See full post on Substack
Short Plan
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