SPX Trade Plan — December 4, 2025
Morning Note — December 4, 2025 - KASM Capital
Morning Note — December 4, 2025
Calm Before the Storm
This week’s theme: consolidation is healthy. SPX is digesting its massive recovery off the Nov 21 lows. The longer the consolidation, the bigger the eventual move.
So, does the next move break up or down—and when? We can’t predict the future, but several factors tilt the odds higher:
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Does that mean we go straight up? No. I’d still prefer a small move lower first to clean up structure. But near- to medium-term, markets look positioned for a meaningful push higher.
Momentum sectors right now: robotics/space/batteries, consumer discretionary (retail and restaurants), and financials.
Expecting another choppy session with an estimated range of 6800–6875. There will be opportunities inside the range—specifically short below 6837 and long above 6865.
Plans are similar to yesterday’s:
Execution Levels
Long Plan
- Through 6862 → 6868, 6875
- Through 6875 → path to 6900 with 6881, 6884, 6894 as interim levels
- Retest & hold of 6837 → 6844 → 6850 → 6856
- Retest & hold of 6826 works the same
Short Plan
- Break below 6837 → 6826
- Below 6826 → quick drop to 6820 → 6815
- Below 6815 → 6807 → 6800
- Below 6798 → slippery slope toward 6726, with 6792 → 6789 → 6780 → 6775 along the way
- Below 6775 → 6764
- Below 6764 → 6754, and through there → 6726 with 6741 and 6733 as interim levels