SPX Trade Plan — December 1, 2025
Morning Note — Dec 1, 2025 - KASM Capital
Morning Note — Dec 1, 2025
New month, new candle — and November closed with what many are calling a terrifying “Hanging Man” that supposedly means sell everything and run for cover.
But is it actually that bearish?
Short answer: we should be cautious — but no, it’s not an immediate doom scenario. Timeframe matters.
Let’s revisit my November 21st morning note (link: https://substack.com/home/post/p-179555848), where I laid out the case for a sizeable bounce before determining the next major move. That analysis compared the September 2020 and October 2021 100-SMA tests outside the Bollinger Band. The macro backdrop lined up more closely with October ’21, and during that period SPY made a new low roughly two weeks after the initial selloff before pushing higher.
Does that mean we repeat the pattern today?
No — different environment, different flows — but it’s a valuable case study and a reminder not to chase leverage blindly into strength.
We also can’t ignore the BTC signal we discussed three weeks ago: historically, BTC losing the 50-week preceded the equity bear market of 2022. Until Bitcoin reclaims that level, we still have an overhang in risk assets.
Right now, everything hinges on a cluster of SPX levels:
Execution Levels
Long Plan
- Backtest + hold of 6764 → long to 6775 → 6789 → 6800.
- Break below 6764:
- 6749 is meaningful support; a hold there can take us back to 6764, then back toward 6800.
- Extreme weakness:
- Watch 6700, 6709, 6726 for strong support.
- 6726 is the most likely bounce zone.
- Through 6826 → opens a move to 6837 → 6844 → 6852 → 6865 → 6880.
Short Plan
- Below 6792 → short to 6764, with interim levels at 6780 → 6775 → 6770.
- Failure at 6826 → look for reversal down to 6819 → 6814 → 6807 → 6800.
- VIX Levels: 17.11, 18, 18.48 (key!), 19.35